Solar PV forecast

At present, most of the viewpoints are that the situation facing China's photovoltaic industry is very serious, and even there is a disaster. We should be realistic about the photovoltaic industry. The photovoltaic industry is not as ridiculous as the media described. Because, in the case of the severe financial crisis in 2008, the installed capacity of the global photovoltaic industry increased by 49%, while the installed capacity of the photovoltaic industry in 2009 and 2010 exceeded 70%. In the first half of 2012, global PV installed capacity increased by 35%. These are all achievements in the context of negative global economic growth. This proves that, first, the photovoltaic market is no problem. Second, there is nothing wrong with the development direction of the photovoltaic industry. In fact, the decline in the price of photovoltaic products is an inevitable trend. It is a dream of the photovoltaic industry to realize the parity of photovoltaics, and it is also a necessary condition for the photovoltaic industry to achieve large-scale development. However, the pace of the photovoltaic industry is going a little faster today, and the price of photovoltaic products has dropped, but the photovoltaic industry chain has not adapted.

"A road that has been completed for five years in one year"

In summary, the market development scale of the photovoltaic industry has not declined, and the direction of development has not been wrong. So, what is wrong with the photovoltaic industry?

When the Medium and Long-term Plan for Renewable Energy was formulated in 2003, our target is to achieve a installed capacity of 2 million kilowatts by 2020. We hope that by 2020, the price of photovoltaic electricity will drop to about 1.5 yuan per kWh, and by 2030, it will drop to about 1 yuan per kWh. In 2011, the price of photovoltaic electricity dropped to 1.15 yuan. The photovoltaic industry has developed too fast. We have achieved the goal of five years in one year. After we have finished the road five years later, there will be no way to go. Borrow a word on the Internet "to take the path of others, let others have no way to go." Faced with this situation, the photovoltaic industry must be adjusted, we must grasp the speed and pace of development.

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