Current situation and trend of China's machine tool industry

Mao Yufeng, deputy secretary-general of China Machine Tool Industry Association, major economic indicators and import and export statistics of the industry (I) Statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, the total industrial output value of the first, first and eighth months was 448.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%;
Among them: abrasives and abrasives 132.81 billion, an increase of 16.7%;
2. The sales value of product sales from January to August was 435.67 billion, an increase of 10.2% year-on-year;
3. The export delivery value of January to August was 26.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.1%;
4. From January to August, the fixed assets investment was 160.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.3%, and the newly added investment was 82.02 billion, a year-on-year increase of 27.2%.
Among them: Abrasives completed fixed assets investment of 41.56 billion, down 1.5% year-on-year, new investment of 18.79 billion, down 3.2% year-on-year;
5. The sales revenue of products from January to July was 372 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%.
6. From January to July, the total profit reached 22.18 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.1%;
7. The net amount of accounts receivable from January to July was 70.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22%;
8. At the end of July, the inventory of finished products was 32.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.9%;
(II) The semi-annual report of 11 machine tool listed companies 1. The operating income from January to June was 7.809 billion yuan, down 17.4% year-on-year;
2. From January to June, the operating profit was 297 million yuan, down 72.58% year-on-year. The number of enterprises with reduced net profit increased to 9 and the loss was 4;
(3) The situation of key enterprises in January-July (218 data)
1. The total industrial output value of January-July was 56.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.2%;
2. The sales value of industrial products from January to July was 54 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.7%;
3. The sales revenue of finished products from January to July was 55.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.4%.
4. Profit from January to July was 2.51 billion, down 40.8% year-on-year;
5. New orders for January-July were 21.97 billion, down 35.5% year-on-year;
At the end of July, the orders in hand were 27.9 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 29.5%;
7. At the end of July, the finished goods inventory was 15.49 billion, an increase of 48.2% over the same period of last year;
(IV) Import and export situation from January to July (customs data)
1. Imports (1) Imports of machine tools reached US$ 11.46 billion, up 1% year-on-year;
Among them: the import of machine tools was 7.6 billion US dollars, up 5% year-on-year;
Abrasives imported $360 million, an increase of 0.5% year-on-year.
(2) The top three sources of abrasive grinding tools are imported:
Japan’s 110 million US dollars, down 11.6% year-on-year;
South Korea's $44 million, an increase of 10.5% year-on-year;
Germany's $43 million, down 4% year-on-year.
(3) Abrasives import trade mode:
General trade was 260 million US dollars, down 6.6% year-on-year;
Warehousing and re-export goods in the bonded area amounted to US$73 million, a year-on-year increase of 34.7%;
The processing trade of imported materials was US$17 million, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%;
(4) Abrasives imported by the company:
The foreign-owned enterprises were US$210 million, down 2.8% year-on-year;
Private enterprises amounted to US$67 million, down 6.1% year-on-year;
Sino-foreign joint ventures amounted to US$57 million, a year-on-year increase of 28.41%;
(5) The top three places where abrasive abrasives are imported:
Shanghai 110 million US dollars, down 2% year-on-year;
Guangdong Province, 94 million US dollars, an increase of 26%;
Jiangsu Province, 54 million US dollars, down 12% year-on-year;
2. Exports (1) Machine tool exports reached US$5.35 billion, an increase of 8.5% year-on-year;
Of which: abrasive abrasives were 940 million US dollars, down 13.6% year-on-year;
(2) The abrasive grinding tool exits to the front three positions:
Japan’s $130 million, a year-on-year decrease of 42%;
US $110 million, down 28% year-on-year;
South Korea's 84 million US dollars, an increase of 8%. .
(3) Abrasives export enterprise:
Private enterprises 500 million US dollars, down 10% year-on-year;
The wholly foreign-owned enterprise was 160 million US dollars, an increase of 9% year-on-year;
State-owned enterprises were 130 million US dollars, down 42% year-on-year.
(4) The top three places where the abrasives export enterprises are located:
Henan Province was 190 million US dollars, down 26% year-on-year;
Guangdong Province, 120 million US dollars, an increase of 19%;
Jiangsu Province has a US$110 million, a year-on-year decrease of 7.8%.
(V) Investigation and research of 54 enterprises 1. Production and sales continued to fall. About 65% of the enterprises in the surveyed industrial output fell year-on-year, and the average decline was double-digit, with the largest drop of nearly 60%, and about 60% of the company's sales revenue. The year-on-year decline, and the maximum decline was 40%.
2. Inventories of finished products increased sharply In the surveyed enterprises, the inventory of finished products increased by about 80% year-on-year, of which about 20% of the company's inventories increased by 50~100% year-on-year, of which about 10% of the company's inventories rose more than 100% year-on-year. The rise in inventory is a clear sign of current business difficulties.
3. Orders are significantly reduced.
Among the research companies, about 80% of the new orders have a negative year-on-year growth. About 85% of companies have a negative growth in orders, with the largest drop of 85%. According to the statistics of key enterprises, the number of new orders in the first half of the year decreased by 36% on average, and the average orders on orders decreased by 23%. The reduction in orders indicates that the operating conditions in the second half and next year are not optimistic.
4. The pressure on corporate funds has increased.
Judging from the current situation of various research companies, the product backlog is serious and it takes up a lot of money. At the same time, accounts receivable surged, and most of the accounts receivable increased by more than 70% year-on-year. On the other hand, the acceptance of bills of exchange is rampant. According to the survey results, more than 70% of the sales returns of industrial enterprises are acceptance bills, and some enterprises are as high as 90%. In addition to increasing financial costs, this situation has further exacerbated the situation of tight capital. Therefore, corporate liquidity is generally tight.
5. The demand structure is upgraded.
In the first half of this year, the sales volume of ordinary machine tools and economical CNC machine tools decreased significantly, but the medium and high-end CNC machine tools did not show a significant decline, and some varieties also increased slightly. From the perspective of market demand, the individualized needs of aerospace, aviation, military, IT and other industries have not been reduced, and some enterprises that provide personalized products for users have increased their orders. The demand for high-end CNC machine tools for high-speed, high-precision and composite processing is stable.
6. The medium and high-end market is still dominated by imported products.
In the first half of the year, with the sharp decline in production and sales in the whole industry, imported machine tools still maintained a 3.3% growth. This shows that the effect of domestic machine tools entering the mid-to-high-end market is not obvious. In the next stage, if it is not possible to occupy the mid- to high-end market as soon as possible, the days of domestic machine tools will be very difficult.
Through the above analysis, we predict that the machine tool industry will be in a low-speed growth trend in the second half of the year. However, the metal processing machine tools, especially the gold cutting machine tools, are a foregone conclusion in the whole year, and the speed of decline should not be lower than 10%.
Second, the industry's outstanding problems and new development stage characteristics In terms of the industry as a whole, it still has not got rid of the development model with scale expansion as the main feature. Although the scale of the industry is large, but the product structure level is low, it is still in the global industrial chain. The low end. At present, the basic characteristics of the industry are “big but not strong”. The main contradiction of the industry at this stage is the contradiction between the accelerated upgrading of the domestic market demand structure and the incompatibility of the industry supply capacity. The development of the industry and the changes in the market in the past year have proved that the above judgment is correct.
(I) At this stage, the imbalance of production capacity structure, obvious homogenization characteristics and weak competitiveness of medium and high-end products are three prominent problems that hinder the development of the industry.
1. Unbalanced production capacity (1) Rapid expansion of production capacity of low-end products (2) Asymmetry of supply capacity and demand structure (3) Unbalanced demand structure of CNC system, functional components and mainframe 2. Product homogenization characteristics are obvious (1) From the function of the machine tool, most of the production of the industrial enterprises is general-purpose machine tools, and the proportion of special-purpose machine tools and special-purpose machine tools is low. It is often the same type of machine that is widely used in various fields of equipment manufacturing.
(2) From the technical level, performance and quality of machine tools, in 2011, the whole industry produced about 270,000 CNC machine tools, and the proportion of high-end machine tools was less than 5%.
(3) From the perspective of marketing service methods, most enterprises are still in the stage of simply selling equipment, and the research on user technology is not deep, and the ability to provide comprehensive solutions for users is lacking.
The consequence of homogenization is that the competition of enterprises is mainly reflected in the vicious competition of prices, forming a low-end product melee situation. The price war has caused serious damage to the development of the industry.
3. The competitiveness of medium and high-end products is weak (1) The deep-level technology of high-end products is not well understood. (2) The industrialization of innovation results is a prominent weak link. (2) The current situation changes, marking the beginning of a new stage of industry development, a new stage of development. Will have the following salient features:
1. The industrial scale entered a period of steady growth;
2. Structural adjustment has increasingly become the theme of industrial development;
3. Differentiation, restructuring and optimization of the internal structure of the industry; 4. Comprehensive upgrading of the overall quality of the industry.
At the key node of the fundamental changes in the situation, it is hoped that industry enterprises will have a clear understanding of the situation, lose their illusions, make up their minds, completely transform outdated management concepts, adjust their development strategies, and avoid inertia to continue the past practices, resulting in unnecessary Loss, missed opportunities for development.
Third, several macroeconomic issues that should be concerned (I) Europe, the United States, and Japan opened the global monetary easing tide. The Federal Reserve announced the launch of QE3 on September 13, implemented the third round of quantitative easing policy, and announced that the federal benchmark interest rate remained at zero on the same day. 0.25% historical low to 2015;
On the 12th, the German Constitutional Court ruled that the European Stability Mechanism is not unconstitutional. On the 17th, German Chancellor Angela Merkel supported the ECB bond purchase plan and provided room for operation to resolve the European debt crisis;
On the 19th, the Bank of Japan decided to further increase monetary easing measures, expanding the fund used to purchase assets by 10 trillion yen (about 126.4 billion US dollars) to 80 trillion yen (about 1.0114 trillion US dollars), while It was decided to maintain the inter-bank unsecured overnight lending rate as the benchmark interest rate at a real zero interest rate of zero to 0.1%.
(II) China's GDP growth rate has fallen for the sixth consecutive quarter from 9.7% in the first quarter of 2011, 9.6% in the second quarter, 9.4% in the third quarter, and 9.2% in the fourth quarter, to 8.1% in the first quarter of 2012 and 7.6% in the second quarter. The growth rate has stabilized or continues to bottom out, and there are mixed opinions. 7.5% is "unbearable weight"?
(3) Why must we "transform the way of economic development"?
There are three main elements that have supported China's economic growth over the past three decades: external demand, cost advantages, and investment.
Insufficient external demand: The United States has a high unemployment rate, proposes re-industrialization, and returns to manufacturing; the EU's European debt crisis is riddled with a tightening fiscal policy. Trade protectionism is on the rise and trade frictions are intensifying.
The cost advantage is weakened: financing costs and labor costs are rising, and there are three transfer channels: one is product price increase, but overcapacity; the second is government tax cut, but no policy is introduced; the third is technological innovation, but it cannot be realized in a short time.
Investment: First, the money is more than the second, and the second is the financial borrowing. However, since 2008, the country’s currency and national debt have been large, so the space for monetary policy and fiscal policy has been very limited.
Therefore, it is necessary to change the mode of economic development: the export-oriented type is the growth mode with both export and domestic demand; the transfer cost advantage is characterized by technological advantage; the transfer-oriented type is consumption support.
(4) Adjusting the structure and adjusting what?
Four aspects: distribution structure (financial income, corporate profits, labor income), industrial structure, urban and rural structure, regional structure.
Industrial structure: In the short term, it is mainly to regulate real estate and develop service industries; in the medium and long term, it is mainly manufacturing and strategic emerging industries, and it is necessary to change from traditional manufacturing to modern manufacturing. For example, high-end machine tools and high-end components are almost all imported, and petrochemical equipment is imported at around 75%. Aircraft demand is big, not strong.
(5) The key to “adjusting structure and transferring methods” is to deepen reform. What to change:
1. The government-led economic system; such as the price control of important production materials and public services, the marketization of labor, capital and land elements, and the marketization of interest rates.
2. Pay attention to the development of the private economy; open up the market, relax market access, and improve the business environment.
3. Solve the problem of the dual economy. Such as urban and rural integration.
Fourth, policy recommendations 1, the implementation of tax incentives for domestic high-end machine tools;
2. Improve the business environment of the enterprise and reduce the burden of taxes and fees;
3. Cancel the import tax exemption policy for high-end machine tool products;
4. Establish an import review mechanism to encourage the use of domestic high-end machine tool products;
5. Further implement the first (set) policy;
6. Encourage enterprises to carry out technological transformation of “two integrations”;
7. Further play the role of major science and technology projects.

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