Cheng Siwei: New energy will lead the next industrial revolution

Sustainable development is a major issue involving the survival of mankind

The relationship between man and nature changes with history. In the primitive society, people fear the nature and worship the sun, the moon, and the fire. In the agricultural society, people conform to nature and basically rely on heaven to eat; In the industrial society, due to the development of science and technology, people began to think that they can conquer nature. In fact, Engels pointed out in 1886, "We should not be too fascinated by our victory in nature. For every such victory, nature has retaliated against us." It should be said that he is very far-sighted, but Engels's reputation was not great at the time, and many people did not pay attention to this warning.

In the 1950s, Carlson wrote the book Silent Spring, which revealed the harm of pesticides to ecology and people, and gradually attracted people's attention to environmental protection. Later, scholars from various countries published a series of books on environmental protection, which led the United Nations to formally propose the concept of sustainable development in the 1980s. The concept of sustainable development means that we must meet the needs of contemporary development, but not the ability to meet the development needs of future generations. The reality is that we cannot afford the development of our generation, regardless of the development of future generations. After this concept was put forward, the issues of protecting the environment, conserving resources, and maintaining the ecology have gradually received the attention of all countries in the world. The concept of sustainable development has begun to spread throughout the world and various actions have been taken.

If we analyze the concept of sustainable development from a historical perspective, we can see that after thousands of years of agricultural civilization in agricultural society and industrial civilization in industrial society for hundreds of years, the knowledge society will soon be ushered in. A new civilization is needed in the society, that is, the ecological civilization of “saving resources, protecting the ecology, and living in harmony with nature”. The author believes that the Party Central Committee's "people-oriented, comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable scientific development concept" is precisely the response to the coming of such a civilization. It should be noted that in order to truly achieve sustainable development, it is necessary to truly make the concept of ecological civilization deeply rooted in the hearts of the people. The task is still very arduous. We also need to greatly enhance the people's understanding of sustainable development and ecological civilization, form a moral force, promote sustainable development, and promote the implementation of the scientific development concept.

It is undeniable that in the current real life, neglecting to protect the environment, ignoring the conservation of resources, and ignoring the maintenance of the ecology still occur frequently. Only by forming a moral force in the whole society can we truly guarantee the construction of ecological civilization. In this respect, in addition to the government and the market, we must pay attention to the power of the so-called "third sector", that is, the power of various mass organizations and non-governmental organizations, in order to make up for government failures and market shortages.

It should be pointed out that Western environmentalism is now prevalent, and even some extreme environmentalists have emerged. They oppose all development initiatives. The author believes that the concept of sustainable development is a positive concept of environmental protection, because human beings must continue to multiply, and to survive on the earth and continuously improve living conditions, it must develop. And human development is not likely to have an impact on nature. We are not passive environmentalists. It is impossible and impossible to return to the original natural state. On the one hand, we must realize the development of human beings. On the other hand, we must attach great importance to the cost of the environment and realize our development with minimal cost.

Environmental costs should be highly valued, and no one has seriously calculated it yet. In the course of development, the loss caused by waste of resources, environmental pollution and ecological damage is the environmental cost. The author is currently the director of the Center for Virtual Economics and Data Science at the Chinese Academy of Sciences. Our center has done a calculation and published a book, pointing out that China's environmental costs in 2005 accounted for about 13.5% of GDP, while China's GDP growth was only 10.4%. That is to say, if we do not pay attention to sustainable development and do not pay attention to the issue of ecological civilization, we will leave environmental problems to our children and grandchildren. Such development is certainly unsustainable. In short, sustainable development involves the survival of mankind and should be highly valued.

Low carbon economy is an important means to achieve sustainable development

Environmental issues include many aspects. In the general case, it means preventing environmental pollution, such as industrial production, pollution of the surrounding community environment. From a global perspective, an important issue is to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, as well as combating desertification and protecting the ozone layer. It now appears that the general concern is the greenhouse effect caused by climate change.

After a lot of research, scientists believe that global warming caused by the massive emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide is the biggest threat facing humanity. According to scientists' estimates, in the past few decades, sea level has risen by 47 centimeters due to melting of glaciers caused by climate change. If not paying attention, climate change will cause big problems. For example, there are 17,000 islands in Indonesia, and if the sea level rises by 1 meter, about 2,000 islands will disappear. The Maldives Island is only 1.2 meters above sea level. If the sea level rises by 1 meter, the survival of this country is a problem. Therefore, island countries such as the Maldives are particularly concerned about future climate change. At present, experts in many Western countries believe that the global temperature rise should be controlled within 2 °C. To this end, the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere should be maintained at 450 ppm (partspermillion) of carbon dioxide equivalent, which will strive to reduce global carbon dioxide by 2030. The emissions have decreased from 28.8 billion tons in 2007 to 26.4 billion tons.

Climate change can also cause frequent natural disasters such as droughts and floods, as well as the extinction of biological species and the destruction of ecological diversity, as well as the reduction of crops and the spread of various diseases. It can be seen that climate change is the greatest threat to human beings, and the main cause of climate change is carbon dioxide-based greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, the world is paying attention to this issue. The concept of low carbon is proposed from this perspective. of. The low-carbon economy now has various definitions, and there are various formulations for various new economic development methods, such as circular economy and green economy. The low carbon economy that the author understands is a way of economic development with low carbon dioxide emissions. However, our views are somewhat different from those of the West. We do not regard carbon dioxide emissions as the sole goal of our development of a low-carbon economy, but the goal of low-carbon economy as low energy consumption, low pollution and low emissions. Three lows." In other words, while focusing on reducing carbon dioxide emissions, we must also pay attention to energy conservation and emission reduction, and comprehensively develop a low-carbon economy.

As far as the author is concerned, the following four levels of measures should be taken to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. The first is to develop energy and production processes that do not emit carbon dioxide; the second is to reduce carbon dioxide emissions through high-efficiency energy use and various related measures; the third is to use carbon dioxide as much as possible, in addition to simply using carbon dioxide as a beverage and other industrial raw materials. In addition, in the chemical industry, technology should be developed to produce some products using carbon dioxide as a raw material, but the carbon dioxide currently available can only account for a small part of the total emissions; the fourth is to treat carbon dioxide, that is, carbon dioxide capture and storage. China and many countries in the world have begun to conduct research in this area. According to reports, the Dutch government has pumped 10 million tons of carbon dioxide from the basement of Barendreet, not far from Rotterdam, in 2000. Two abandoned natural gas fields directly store carbon dioxide. However, it seems that the cost of carbon dioxide capture and storage is still very high.

It can be argued that a low-carbon economy is an economic development mode that not only changes our energy structure, changes our product structure, but also further changes the way people produce and consume. In other words, not only the industrial sector should pay attention, but everyone should pay attention to how to change our own consumption patterns for the development of a low-carbon economy. There is a buzzword now, “Are you low-carbon today?” This is the requirement that everyone should adapt to the low-carbon economy in their lifestyle and consumption patterns. In general, a low-carbon economy is a very important measure for achieving sustainable development, especially in the current situation.

New energy will lead the next industrial revolution

There are also various definitions of new energy sources, such as “green energy”, “renewable energy” and “low-carbon energy”, which have different meanings. The author believes that new energy can be defined in both narrow and broad sense. The narrow new energy sources include wind energy, solar energy, tidal energy, geothermal energy, biofuels and other energy sources that have not been widely used before; general new energy sources also include nuclear energy and hydropower. It even includes clean coal technology.

Developing new energy sources is a very important measure to achieve a low-carbon economy, because there are four main benefits to developing new energy sources: one is to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. It is well known that when using energy such as water, nuclear energy, wind energy, and solar energy, carbon dioxide is not emitted, so that carbon dioxide emissions can be greatly reduced.

Second, the development of new energy sources can reduce human dependence on fossil energy. From the history of human energy use, the earliest uses of animals and plants, such as burning branches and leaves, point animal fats, etc., and then into the era of the use of coal, and then into the era of the use of oil and natural gas. But in the long run, fossil fuels such as oil, natural gas and coal are always exhausted. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), oil, natural gas and coal production will start to decline after 40, 50 and 120 years respectively. Of course, these predictions may not take into account the further development of science and technology, it is possible to extend the time of fossil energy depletion by improving the technology of mining oil, natural gas and coal. But in any case, they are going to be exhausted sooner or later.

Not only must we consider the development of new energy sources in terms of the rain, but we must also consider them from an economic perspective. The current price fluctuations of fossil fuels, especially oil, have jeopardized the economic stability of countries. At present, the demand for oil is about 80 million barrels to 90 million barrels per day (7 barrels is equivalent to one ton), that is, the fluctuation of demand is plus or minus 10%. However, due to the speculation of futures and oil brokers, the fluctuation of oil prices in recent years is up to plus or minus 200%. From about $150 a barrel to a minimum of just over $20 a barrel, this fluctuation in oil prices has had a very serious impact on national economies. For example, China’s current oil imports account for about half of China’s demand, about 1.4 billion barrels. If the price rises by 10 dollars per barrel, China will lose 14 billion dollars, and the supply has not been fully guaranteed. Many of China's imported oil is transported through the Straits of Malacca. Once special circumstances arise, it is difficult to supply safely, which poses a threat to China's energy security.

Third, biofuels can be produced by using cellulose and hemicellulose as raw materials, which can free up more cultivated land to grow food to cope with the food crisis. The United States and Brazil have exerted great power on the development of biofuels. The United States uses corn as ethanol, and Brazil uses sugar cane as ethanol. This is the first generation of biofuel technology. However, China cannot follow this example. Because there are more than 1.3 billion people in China, we should ensure that China's grain output will reach an annual average of 400 kilograms. We must ensure that China has enough cultivated land. China and some countries are studying the use of cellulose and hemicellulose to make ethanol. This is called second-generation biofuel technology and is still in the research stage, but it seems that it is still very good through the preferred strains, improved separation technology, etc. Hope to break through. Some experts in our country have proposed the use of sweet sorghum stalks to make ethanol. This technology can be said to be the 1st and 5th generation biofuel technology, and it is also possible to succeed. At present, China's use of food to produce biofuels can only be a means of adjustment. When corn is stored too much and the storage period is too long, it can be used to make ethanol. However, from the perspective of China's national conditions, it should never rely on the use of large amounts of food to make biofuels.

Fourth, the development of new energy sources will provide countries around the world and China with a new economic growth point after the US subprime mortgage crisis. After the US subprime mortgage crisis, one of the biggest impacts on China was that developed countries reduced their demand for imported goods due to the financial crisis, which inevitably led to overcapacity in China. China's foreign trade decreased by 139% in 2009. The reduction of external demand will inevitably lead to factory production reduction or even production suspension, as well as workers' unemployment, so this is a great threat to our country. To this end, the Central Economic Work Conference has repeatedly stressed the need to change the way of development. The loss of the part that originally relied on external demand should be compensated by developing domestic demand.

Many industrial sectors in China are actually overcapacity. If investment is still used to develop traditional industries, it will inevitably lead to overcapacity, increased inventories, reduced efficiency and resurgence of pollution. The problem of overcapacity cannot be ignored. According to reports, the overcapacity of China's steel is about 200 million tons. With an investment of 5,000 yuan per ton of steel, 1 trillion yuan of investment can't play a role. Therefore, after the US subprime mortgage crisis, China’s economic development can no longer follow the traditional path of repeated construction, to find new economic growth points and adopt new development methods. The author believes that new energy is definitely a new economic growth point, and this is also true in the world.

From a broader historical perspective, the first three industrial revolutions that humans have undergone are led by steam engines, electricity and computers. Every industrial revolution has made the world's industrial development level a big step, and will make consumers Benefit. The author believes that the fourth industrial revolution will be an energy revolution led by new energy.

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