The shipbuilding industry is in the bottom of the trough, and dozens of companies are vying for a meal.

"Who's the capital chain breaks first and whoever dies first?" This has become a spell in the shipbuilding industry. Orders fell sharply, labor and other costs remained high, and the abandonment of ships delayed delivery was high, and the shipbuilding industry as a whole was in trouble. Following the bankruptcy or suspension of production of more than 20 large and medium-sized shipbuilding companies in 2015, several shipbuilding companies have been in debt crisis this year. The industry believes that in 2016, the shipbuilding industry will face a more severe situation, and there will still be companies forced to withdraw from the market.
The "Economic Information Daily" reporter recently learned in an interview that the construction of the fund is a practice in the shipbuilding industry. As the market demand has dropped sharply, the down payment paid by the shipping companies to the shipbuilding enterprises has even dropped below 10%, which means about 90%. The shipbuilding fund is a bank loan. Abandoned by ship and delayed delivery due to the serious transmission capacity of the shipping market, the phenomenon is very serious, which means that the bank becomes the largest “owner” and the risk of abandoning the ship will be transmitted to the banking industry.

Dozens of companies compete for "a meal"
Some insiders predict that after the market adjustment and mergers and acquisitions in China's shipbuilding industry, there will be only about 10 companies left, private enterprises will be wiped out, and state-owned enterprises will support it.
It is understood that in order to avoid the bankruptcy of the capital chain and bankruptcy, the current domestic shipbuilding enterprises in order to obtain a little cash flow to compete for price orders, which makes the ship price of the main ship type has been shackled in 2007, further aggravating the crisis in the shipbuilding industry.
In 2015, more than 20 large and medium-sized shipyards went bankrupt in the country. Among them, the largest foreign shipyard, South Korea STX Shipyard, was insolvent and liquidated in Dalian. Shipbuilding enterprises such as Mingde Heavy Industry, Dongfang Shipyard and Haotian Shipyard have entered bankruptcy liquidation or reorganization procedures. Wait for a large number of shipyards to be in a "zombie" or stop production and semi-discontinuation.
In 2016, the shipbuilding industry faced a more severe situation, and many shipbuilding companies experienced a debt crisis. According to the announcement of the website of Shanghai Clearing House, Chunhe Group, which is based in Zhejiang, released a news that due to the exhaustion of cash flow, it was unable to pay the one-year bonds due in full on schedule (May 16, 2016). The Pacific (7.160, 0.00, 0.00%) Shipbuilding Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Chunhe Group, is a civil construction shipbuilding company known for the construction of special ships. Similar to the debt default of Chunhe Group, many shipbuilding enterprises in Zhejiang are facing financial problems, but there has not been any bankruptcy.
The "Economic Information Daily" reporter learned from Shanghai Waigao Shipbuilding Co., Ltd. that in March and April this year, China's VLOC orders were sold in batches, which drove the market volume to rebound significantly. In May, the policy orders were exhausted, and the market turnover fell back below one million dwt. The confidence of the shipowners in the entire market is still insufficient. The market continues the bleak situation since the beginning of the year.
After the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008, the shipbuilding market has shown a weakening demand. At that time, most shipbuilding companies chose to transform into the marine engineering field. However, since the sharp decline in international oil prices in 2015, the demand for offshore engineering equipment has also plummeted.
According to statistics from the international maritime agency Clarkson, the amount of new orders received by the global sea industry in 2015 was only $14.5 billion, down 66% year-on-year, the lowest level in a decade. In the first quarter of 2016, the global sea industry received orders of 388 million US dollars, down 90% year-on-year, setting a record for the global single-season turnover for more than a decade.
A domestic offshore industrial management official said that while the demand for orders decreased, the price of offshore platforms also fell sharply. The company's offshore platform project lost more than RMB 1 billion a year. The $388 million order can support a company, but dozens of companies compete for these orders, waiting for the company to die.
The shipbuilding industry crisis is global. Singapore's offshore giant Keppel's 2015 performance slipped 52%, resulting in nearly 14,000 layoffs. South Korea’s Daewoo Shipbuilding and Hyundai Heavy Industries lost US$4.6 billion and US$1.3 billion respectively due to offshore operations. In March 2016, Hyundai Heavy Industries closed its professional offshore equipment construction plant in Aung San, South Korea.

Abandoning the ship or risking the banking industry
The industry believes that the financial risks that may arise from the crisis in the shipbuilding industry need to be vigilant. Most of the loans from China's shipbuilding enterprises come from domestic banks, and they need to arrange loans involving shipbuilding and shipping.
Due to the downturn in the shipping market and the delay in the delivery of ships by shipping companies, the reporter learned from an interview with Shanghai Waigao Shipbuilding Co., Ltd. that some shipowners are reluctant to accept ships, and shipbuilding companies can only park the built ships at anchorages. Some even demand harsh conditions and require abandoning the ship.
It is reported that domestic shipbuilding enterprises have adopted a large number of down payment orders in the past few years. Major Chinese offshore enterprises, including Dalian Shipbuilding Heavy Industry, China Merchants Heavy Industry, and Waigaoqiao Shipbuilding, have suffered a large number of offshore platforms. According to Clarkson data, as of the first quarter of 2016, nearly 100 platforms of Chinese shipyards are waiting to be delivered. Among them, there are 11 heavy-duty enterprises in China Merchants Bureau and 11 ships in Waigaoqiao.
The 100 offshore platforms waiting to be delivered mean that 20 billion U.S. dollars have not been recovered. 90% to 95% of the construction funds of offshore platforms are paid by shipbuilding companies, and most of them are bank loans.
According to Clarkson’s “undelivered” rate, the undelivered rate of global handheld orders for the full year of 2015 was 35%. The offshore market is experiencing the toughest market conditions since the 1980s, with its undelivered rate soaring from 60% in 2015 to 60% in 2016. So far this year, the undelivered rate of ships including all ship types has risen to 51%, and it is expected that 40% of the annual hand-held orders will be difficult to deliver on schedule.
The "Economic Information Daily" reporter learned from the shipbuilding enterprises that the shipbuilding enterprises went bankrupt, and the banks and local governments were the most affected. The local governments gave them favorable loan conditions in order to encourage the development of shipbuilding enterprises, and gave preferential conditions in land policy. . The crisis in the shipbuilding industry is likely to extend to the banking industry, a situation that has emerged abroad.
German banks are suffering from huge debt pressures from shipping. As some German banks have been the largest lending institutions in the shipping industry, affected by the downturn in the shipping market, the German state of Bremen State Bank with assets of 29 billion euros is struggling to hold a portfolio of bad shipping assets and has to In the shipping industry's portfolio of 400 million euros bad debts, the bank will face hundreds of millions of dollars in losses this year. In addition, Deutsche Bank is also seeking to sell at least $1 billion in shipping debt.

"I don't know where the bottom is."
Many people in the industry are very pessimistic about the industry's prospects. Their judgment on the industry trend is from "still not bottoming out" to "not knowing where the bottom is."
The reporter learned that the shipping and shipbuilding market has obvious cyclicality and is a barometer of macroeconomics. This round of market trough has gone through nearly ten years and is still in a downward trend.
In the context of declining transportation demand, shipping companies have begun to control capacity growth. According to Clarkson's statistics, the number of new shipbuilding orders in 2016 reached its lowest level in nearly 20 years. However, capacity growth is still higher than demand. Ding Zejuan, president of Maersk Line Greater China, said that in the second quarter of this year, capacity rose by about 6%, while demand rose by only about 2%.
In general, short-term demand and tightly controlled supply help reverse the downturn, but in the long run, it still depends on macroeconomic trends.
“The volatility of the shipping industry and the influx of speculative financial capital have further enhanced the industry's volatility, which is a huge test for heavy-asset shipping companies.” General Manager of COSCO SHIPPING ENERGY TRANSPORT CO., LTD. Jun said that the industry's trough since 2008 has not seen signs of recovery, mainly due to the macroeconomic impact.
Trond Westlie, chief financial officer of Maersk Group, said the risks facing the shipping market came from trade barriers, reduced growth and reduced shipping demand. Global trade has shown a continuing downturn in recent years. The World Trade Organization’s global trade report released in April predicts that global trade growth this year is expected to be only 2.8%, continuing to be lower than the 5% average of the past 30 years. At this point, global trade growth will be less than 3% for five consecutive years, the "worst" period since the 1980s.

Excess capacity is “sudden and not dead”
A bankruptcy of a company does not mean going to capacity. Some insiders believe that as long as the production capacity is still there, once the market turns warm, it may be put into production immediately.
In the past decade, the global new shipbuilding market has quickly fallen into trouble after a rapid rise. In 2007, with the highest investment enthusiasm, 220 shipyards worldwide received at least one order of more than 20,000 DWT, an increase of 80% over 2005. However, the global economic downturn has ended this enthusiasm. In 2009, the number of newly signed shipyards fell by 45% compared to 2007. Although China's shipyards received policy support to obtain some new ship orders from 2013 to 2014, overall, shipbuilding orders are being hard to reduce.
According to Clarkson, only 80 of the 220 shipyards that received orders in 2007 were able to gain in 2015. Among the shipbuilding enterprises that have withdrawn from the market, 87 Chinese shipyards, most of which are specialized in bulk carriers, and a number of European shipyards, have lost their competition with Asian shipyards.
The data shows that in 2015, China's shipping companies received only 102 bulk cargo orders, a decrease of 72.9% from the 377 ships in 2014 and a decrease of 83.5% from the 620 ships in 2013.
The "Economic Information Daily" reporter interviewed COSCO Shipping and several shipbuilding companies learned that the shipping shipbuilding market is returning to rationality. Before 2008, the shipping market was in a rising period, which gave birth to a large amount of capital entering the shipbuilding industry and greatly overdrafted future demand. After the speculative capital exits the shipping market and the freight rate is relatively stable, the industry can enter the healthy development track.
Zhenhong, secretary-general of Shanghai International Shipping Research Center, believes that China's shipbuilding industry needs to learn from the development of this decade, and the single product and vicious competition will lead to the development of the industry. In the case of a downturn in the market, orders from Japanese shipyards are not falling, but they are winning in terms of their technical strength and product quality.
The reporter interviewed the shipyard that the shipbuilding industry, as a overcapacity industry, had to remove production capacity, and it was only the first step to let some companies withdraw from the market through the hands of the market. Experts believe that to learn from the lessons of this round of industry development, the shipbuilding industry needs to strengthen the planning and adjustment of the industry, to avoid the ship warming up after the market warms up, the shipbuilding enterprises will be able to compete and develop the R&D capabilities to break through the development of the industry. Key areas to improve the supporting capabilities of the shipbuilding industry.

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