Analysis and forecast of price trend of raw and auxiliary materials for foundry (2)

2, zinc ingot

In 2007, China's refined zinc production increased steadily. From January to November of that year, China's refined zinc production was 3.395 million tons, an increase of 18.9% over the same period of the previous year. In the first half of the year, zinc prices basically followed the trend of copper prices, but they were slightly weaker. It can be seen from Figure 2 that the fluctuation of domestic zinc spot price in the first half of the year is not too big, basically fluctuating around RMB 30,000/ton, but after the last rise in London zinc price in May, the price fell below RMB 30,000/ton until After the end of the first quarter of 2008, the price has continued to fall. Due to oversupply, it is predicted that the price of zinc ingots will continue to fluctuate downward in the second half of 2008.

3, aluminum ingot

The year of 2007 was a relatively flat year for aluminum prices, but it has not yet shaken off the range of shocks. Lun aluminum has basically maintained a fluctuation in the range of 2400-3000 US dollars throughout the year. There has been a slow rise in the first half of the year, but it has been blocked twice in the second quarter. In the second half of the year, due to the US subprime mortgage crisis, global financial market turmoil has occurred. The metal was also implicated, and the aluminum price thus showed a round of adjustment, but eventually gained support along the range of 2,400 US dollars, and picked up at the end of the year. In the domestic market, Shanghai Aluminum's performance in 2007 was even calmer than that of Lun Aluminum. The maximum fluctuation of the annual price was only about 3,000 yuan. Most of the time, the aluminum price was in the range of 18,000-20000 yuan. In terms of spot, the price of Changjiang Nonferrous 99.7 aluminum ingots is basically running in the range of 17500-21500 yuan, and the spot fluctuation range is slightly larger than the futures fluctuation range.

It can be seen from Figure 3 that the annual trend of aluminum ingots in 2007 was gradually reduced from the high level in the first quarter, and there was a rise in the second quarter. The second half of the year was weakened by various adverse effects, and the year-end was basically at the low level of the year. In 2007, global aluminum supply and demand is still in surplus, so it is predicted that the price of aluminum ingots will continue to fluctuate downward in the second half of 2008.

Figure 3 Aluminium ingot (A00) price trend from 07 to 08 May

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