The new drama industry has increased its “play code†and competition has entered “white feverâ€.
Nowadays, China's new energy automobile industry has become the biggest engine to promote the development of the global new energy vehicle market. China has been ranked as the world's largest producer of new energy vehicles for three consecutive years.
New energy vehicles are shifting from a policy-driven to a market-driven one. With the comprehensive implementation of the subsidy new policy and the double-point policy, market competition is gradually becoming "white-hot." At the same time, both market increments and investment enthusiasm have shown a high profile.
In 2017, China's new energy vehicle sales reached nearly 800,000 units. In 2018, in the first eight months alone, the output and sales volume of new energy vehicles exceeded 600,000 units, a year-on-year growth rate of 75.4% and 88% respectively. At this rhythm alone, the goal of achieving sales of more than one million in 2018 and over 2 million in 2020 is just around the corner.
In the first half of this year, China's new energy vehicle sales accounted for more than 50% of the global total. Eight auto brands, including BYD and Beiqi New Energy, entered the top 20 global new energy vehicle brand sales. At the same time, the new power of the car has risen strongly. At present, more than 200 new car brands are making great strides in the field of new energy vehicles. The planned investment amount and capacity of this new force are more than 100 billion yuan and 10 million vehicles respectively. .
On the other hand, the pace of upgrading the industry's consumption upgrades has accelerated, the development space and format have ushered in diversification, and the investment opportunities and space in the industry chain have also increased. However, China's new energy automobile industry chain is also facing the influence of various domestic and international forces. The “play code†is increasing and the game is continuous. At present, the entire industry generally presents the following trends:
The state's support for the industry remains unchanged
The new energy automobile industry is an important driving force for upgrading the upgrading of China's automobile industry. The state's support for the new energy automobile industry has remained unchanged. At present, the various departments of the country jointly promote and support policy support, and the institutional advantages are very prominent. Various favorable policies such as incentives, restraints, guarantees, management norms, and industrial guidance have been formulated for new energy vehicles. The system is very complete and the supporting facilities are increasingly perfect.
Whether it is the "Energy Conservation and New Energy Vehicle Development Plan (2012-2020)" issued earlier, or the recent "Public Industry Medium- and Long-Term Development Plan" and other major policies, it has released an important signal that electric vehicles are the country. The direction of the established industrial strategy and policy level to promote its sustained and healthy development will not waver. These policies are promoting the healthy and orderly development of the industry from multiple dimensions, and will benefit the development of the new energy automobile industry in the long run.
Regulation of various industrial policies is tightening
Under the general environment of constant support for national policies, the entire industry began to be accompanied by problems such as disorderly expansion and low-level competition, including speculation in recent years. In response to these real problems, the supervision of industrial policies by relevant state ministries and commissions is becoming increasingly standardized and strict.
Since 2018, the financial subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles has been further adjusted and improved. The subsidy technology threshold has been raised a lot, and the technical indicators and gears in terms of cruising range, battery energy density and energy consumption subsidies have been refined. The two points policy of average fuel value points and new energy vehicle points have also been implemented.
Financial subsidies are not the "Tang Tang meat" that is immortal. The development dividend is not a ride that everyone can take.
In 2016 and 2017, only 350,000 new energy vehicles were approved by experts, and the total sales volume of new energy vehicles in the past two years was about 1.28 million. According to this calculation, more than 900,000 vehicles sold in the two years have not yet received subsidies. In the passenger vehicle sector, the A0 and A00 markets, which account for more than 70% of the sales of electric vehicles, are under pressure due to the cancellation of subsidies for electric vehicles with a cruising range of less than 150 kilometers.
The National Development and Reform Commission also recently issued the "Regulations on Investment Management of the Automobile Industry (Draft for Comment)", aiming at further improving the access standards for investment projects in the automotive industry, strictly controlling the investment behavior of market entities, guiding the rational injection of social capital, and preventing blind construction and The development of the order promotes the shift of new energy vehicles to “high quality growthâ€. The document also strictly regulates the qualifications, scale, geography and production standards of new energy vehicle vehicles.
Industry shuffling is more intense, market risks are gradually increasing
At present, the market expansion of traditional fuel vehicles is gradually limited and blocked. Under the dual promotion of subsidized new policies and double points policy, more traditional auto companies will enter the new energy vehicle field. With the tightening of policies, the reshuffle of the industry, the increasingly fierce competition, and the increasing risk are inevitable trends.
In this era of rushing together, the market is unpredictable, and the "squid" is in full chase, no one can really sit on the "Diaoyutai" and Yongli "the shackles of the wilderness." A little slack can break down the sand and become a tributary under the competition barrier.
On the one hand, after allowing foreign-funded new energy auto companies to establish wholly-owned companies in the free trade zone, China has become a gathering place for the international new energy auto industry. China's electric vehicle market is becoming a “hot enthusiasm†favored by overseas auto companies. Well-known foreign-funded car companies such as Tesla and foreign-funded battery manufacturers such as Samsung, LG and Panasonic have all landed in China's new energy vehicle market.
The resulting “squid effect†broke the original industrial structure and brought greater pressure and challenges to the self-owned brand new energy vehicle manufacturers and parts enterprises. In particular, foreign-funded lithium suppliers are more advanced in terms of large-scale procurement of raw materials, quality control of production processes, and high automation of production processes. In addition, under the market environment in which subsidies have been fully degraded, the real contest of China's power battery industry has just started.
On the other hand, at present, a large number of new Internet-powered vehicles such as Weilai, Xiaopeng, Chehejia and Singular have flooded into the field of new energy vehicles, and have entered the trial production stage from the earlier “PPT car†stage. Or delivery phase. This batch of "new-car sports new-born", with the "new car sports tradition" represented by Beiqi, Jiangling, Chery, Hezhong, Yundu, etc., as well as "cross-border" represented by Weimar, Future, and Baiteng Transforming and building a new army, has formed a strong position.
In 2018, it was called "the first year of new car power." If the new car sports are compared to football games, the front is warm-up, and then it is necessary to enter the official "fight."
Second, even for the new forces of the car itself, it is undergoing a severe test. This new force is getting closer and closer to the "bone-eye" of product delivery, but most of them are constrained by qualifications, foundry, channels, etc., and the delivery of production cars will encounter difficulties. If you can't complete the delivery of the new car on this "bone-eye", it will have a great impact on the next step of financing and other work.
At the same time, the node that has completely subsided the subsidies for new energy vehicles in 2020 is approaching. These superimposed "squats" are like the "Sword of Damocles" hanging overhead, and can be hit hard at any time.
The wind stops, the big waves wash the sand, who is up and down? The crowd will compete, and who will fight? This will also be a topic of great concern to the upstream and downstream of the new energy vehicle industry chain.
The so-called "Amoy Golden Sands began to see gold", those new energy companies that rely on the wind to blow up will eventually be photographed on the beach by the big waves, and the last company to stay is the so-called "real gold", the number will also be 寥寥Few.
In 2020, the new energy auto industry will usher in the peak period of mergers and acquisitions. Then, in the current "autumn of life and death", in this extraordinary period of "wind and crane", if the new energy auto industry invests in entrepreneurship, how to take the initiative? Which dimensions should you grasp? This is also a major issue at present. We believe that the development of China's new energy automobile industry will certainly become more rational in the fierce competition!
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