The arrival of coal sales peaks ahead of the price or will innovate further

Since the autumn, the traditional off-season of the coal market has shown that the off-season is not thin this year. At present, power plants and heating companies are increasing their coal reserves. Huadian Shaanxi Company recently held a special working conference on winter coal storage, requesting advance decision-making and take the initiative to ensure that the supply of coal reserves in winter is stable and reliable.

In Qinhuangdao, which is known as the "blade of the coal market," thermal coal prices rebounded in mid-September and continued to rebound in the following two weeks. The purchase price of thermal coal in key power plants in East China began to rise in mid-September after stabilizing in early September. Li Chaolin, a coal expert, said that coal prices are likely to rise further and even hit a new high this year.

The reason why this year's coal sales peak arrives early this year has been analyzed by experts. The main reasons are demand, transportation and supply. In terms of transportation, Daqin Railway carried out 15 days of maintenance from September 21. Qinhuangdao Port reduced the amount of imported coal and inventory decreased. On the demand side, major power plants and heating companies started early winter coal preparation and coal demand increased. Big. In the southern part of the country, there was a shortage of electricity coal, and the number of coal deposit days fell quickly. The demand for power plants to make up the inventory pushed the coal price to rise against the trend. For coal-intensive Central China and East China regions, the supply of coal in winter is less than a few percent, which also leads to the maintenance of thermal coal prices. On the supply side, China Coal, the main coal producer, has stopped production due to accidents. The tight supply of resources and the increase in demand have led to a rise in coal prices. Affected by the “9.16” flooding incident in China Coal Mining Group, Shanxi Jinhai Yuanbaowan Coal Mine, the Shanxi Provincial Government has recently decided that all coal mines in Shanxi Province will be suspended from production and rectification before being resumed after inspection and acceptance. According to analysis, China Coal accidents affect the monthly supply of coal in China by 3%, and the expected duration is about 1 month or even longer. This is a more than expected factor in the coal market.

At the same time, the price performance of coking coal is still strong. The reason is that coking coal is a scarce type of coal and the supply is tight. Coupled with the increase in steel demand driven by the start of protection of housing in various regions, coking coal prices are pushed up from the supply side.

The Zhongyuan Securities Research Report also pointed out that there is an upward trend in coal prices in the fourth quarter. With the large reduction of coal and coal inventories in power plants and iron and steel industries, there is a rigid demand for restocking; at the same time, the coming winter, heating and the need for winter storage in the steel industry have brought the coal industry into peak season. The short-term supply was slightly tighter, with the country's raw coal output falling for the second consecutive month, and the Daqin Line again overhauled. The reduction in the volume of imports led to a 4.4% drop in port coal inventory (6.99 million tons), which may stimulate coal prices to rise again. Transportation bottlenecks and costs support coal prices. During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, the integration of the coal industry increased the bargaining power of coal companies and transferred the continuously rising cost capability; at the same time, the long-term existence of transport bottlenecks also supported the difficulty of downward prices.

However, China Coal Resource Network commentator Li Ting pointed out that from the perspective of the international market, the international coal price is unlikely to rise sharply in the short term. Under current domestic and foreign price levels, China’s coal imports can still reach a relatively high level. . This has positive significance for the supply of sufficient domestic coal market and stabilization of domestic coal prices. It is expected that coal prices in Qinhuangdao Port will stabilize in October.