RMB spot exchange rate hit a new high of more than 4 months
Yesterday, the spot exchange rate of the RMB responded to the “opening†of QE3 (the third round of quantitative easing) in the United States. On Friday, the spot exchange rate of the yuan rose by 151 basis points, hitting a new high of more than four months, while the median price rose slightly for the third consecutive day. In this regard, market participants pointed out that the foreign exchange market needs to digest QE3 for a period of time. The weakening of the US dollar will cause the RMB exchange rate to rise in the short term. However, in the medium and long term, the weak foreign trade situation and economic situation will make the RMB central price increase limited. “This round of quantitative easing is smaller than the previous two in terms of scale, but if the labor market fails to achieve 'substantial' improvements, the new mortgage-backed securities purchase plan will continue, increase in size or be accompanied by additional easing measures. Application.†For the newly released QE3, the Standard Chartered Research Department pointed out in the latest research report yesterday. The "open" of QE3 also exceeded market expectations. UBS Wealth Management pointed out that this special QE3 is focused on the purchase of assets such as mortgage-backed securities (MBS), and there is no time limit for the proposed $40 billion monthly purchase plan, so there is no size limit. "Plus the United States is also committed to maintaining very low interest rates until mid-2015, which will limit the dollar's rise." UBS Fortune pointed out. The US dollar index has fallen for three consecutive days. As of press time, yesterday's intraday decline has reached 0.16%, at 79.14 points, and the lowest intraday low of 78.95 points in the intraday low of about 4 months. At the same time, non-US currencies also rose, and the euro also rose to a four-month high against the US dollar. QE3 has brought about a flood of global dollar liquidity, which has led to a general rise in non-US currencies. The price of precious metals such as gold and silver has risen, but the rise in the central parity of the yuan is still moderate. Although the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar rose for the third consecutive day, it was reported to 6.3317, but it only rose 21 basis points from the previous trading day, and the cumulative increase on the 3rd was only 74 basis points. “Compared to the sharp decline of the US dollar index, the rebound in the central parity of the RMB is relatively mild, which shows that the central bank does not want the RMB to continue to appreciate.†The China Merchants Bank Financial Market Department pointed out that the US dollar index has fallen below the recent support level and is expected to adjust. The magnitude is larger than expected. Market participants pointed out that although the weakening of the US dollar will support the renminbi, it is necessary to reverse the current fundamentals of the renminbi depreciation. There must be cooperation with the domestic economic fundamentals. From the weak economic growth and weak foreign trade data, the trend of the renminbi is not due to QE3. reverse. "From the recent proposal to introduce measures to support exports, the future exchange rate of the RMB will be more related to the actual situation of the economy and foreign trade. Before the economy really bottoms out, the renminbi will be weak and moderately weaker when the dollar strengthens, but This weakening is still a modest depreciation, and the RMB will not depreciate significantly in the future.†Liu Dongliang, senior analyst of the Financial Market Department of China Merchants Bank, pointed out. A state-owned trader pointed out that QE3 has a major indirect impact on the RMB exchange rate. If the US dollar has been falling, the RMB exchange rate will rebound, but the rebound rate should be limited, and the relatively moderate performance of the RMB will remain.
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