Rational view of the mechanical industry's warming signal
At the end of July, the China Machinery Industry Federation held a press conference on the economic operation of the machinery industry in the first half of 2009. According to the data, since the second quarter of 2009, various economic indicators of the machinery industry have begun to rise steadily, and in the second half of the year, it is expected to continue the recovery trend and gradually accelerate the recovery rate, and regain double-digit speed in the fourth quarter. increase. In addition, the China Machinery Industry Federation also made an optimistic forecast that the total output value of the machinery industry in 2009 will increase by about 12% over the previous year, and the profit will increase by about 8% from the previous year.
The steady recovery of the machinery industry has given a positive signal to automation companies, but this does not mean that the automation product market will quickly recover in the sub-sector of the machinery industry. Throughout the economic operation of various sub-sectors of the machinery industry in the first half of 2009, the agricultural machinery and automobile industries benefited the most from the national policy of expanding domestic demand, and the effect was the most obvious. The production and sales grew rapidly, but these two industries are in the near future for the automation market. The promotion is very limited. The level of automation in the automotive industry is already high. The current recovery is the result of using the original technology and equipment to solve the problem of capital turnover through policy support. The timing of real technology upgrade and expansion of production scale has not really come. The market growth of agricultural machinery is also the result of policy promotion. At present, the rural market is the main target market, and the solution is still the problem of “there is noâ€. Therefore, most of the products that are introduced to the market are low-end and low-cost products for automation products. The demand is not high.
What deserves our attention is the other two sub-sectors – the construction machinery industry and the heavy mining industry. The economic operation data of the machinery industry in the first half of 2009 showed that the growth rate of industrial output value of these two industries was above 10%, and it continued to rise. The growth of construction machinery and heavy mining industry is driven by the country's continuous promotion of infrastructure such as transportation and energy. It is an “emerging market†for automation technology and product application: on the one hand, it comes from the real demand of engineering projects to upgrade machinery. The level of automation of the product; on the other hand, a variety of automation techniques are also required in the production of construction machinery and heavy mining machinery. Moreover, most construction machinery and heavy mining machinery enterprises are large in scale and relatively abundant in capital. In addition, this industry has a relatively good foundation in the application of automation technology, and it is easy to form a breakthrough.
In addition, we should also note that although the overall economic operation of the machinery industry has shown signs of rapid growth, the decline in export delivery value has accelerated, and the situation of foreign trade exports has not yet bottomed out. According to the forecast of the China Machinery Industry Federation, the annual foreign exchange earning in 2009 is expected to drop by about 10% from the previous year. Therefore, we cannot ignore the part of the demand gap brought to the automation market due to the downturn in the export situation.
Taking into account the different needs of automation industry in various sub-sectors of the machinery industry, the automation products market related to machinery manufacturing is expected to enter a comprehensive warm-up period in the second half of 2010, driven by the continuous upward trend of the machinery industry. However, in order to seize the opportunity of the development of the machinery industry, it is necessary for automation companies to take precautions from now on: on the one hand, improve the technical content of products, and seize the market share of high-end products; on the other hand, choose emerging target markets and do relevant technical reserves. These measures are necessary to quickly gain a foothold in the new round of competition.
The steady recovery of the machinery industry has given a positive signal to automation companies, but this does not mean that the automation product market will quickly recover in the sub-sector of the machinery industry. Throughout the economic operation of various sub-sectors of the machinery industry in the first half of 2009, the agricultural machinery and automobile industries benefited the most from the national policy of expanding domestic demand, and the effect was the most obvious. The production and sales grew rapidly, but these two industries are in the near future for the automation market. The promotion is very limited. The level of automation in the automotive industry is already high. The current recovery is the result of using the original technology and equipment to solve the problem of capital turnover through policy support. The timing of real technology upgrade and expansion of production scale has not really come. The market growth of agricultural machinery is also the result of policy promotion. At present, the rural market is the main target market, and the solution is still the problem of “there is noâ€. Therefore, most of the products that are introduced to the market are low-end and low-cost products for automation products. The demand is not high.
What deserves our attention is the other two sub-sectors – the construction machinery industry and the heavy mining industry. The economic operation data of the machinery industry in the first half of 2009 showed that the growth rate of industrial output value of these two industries was above 10%, and it continued to rise. The growth of construction machinery and heavy mining industry is driven by the country's continuous promotion of infrastructure such as transportation and energy. It is an “emerging market†for automation technology and product application: on the one hand, it comes from the real demand of engineering projects to upgrade machinery. The level of automation of the product; on the other hand, a variety of automation techniques are also required in the production of construction machinery and heavy mining machinery. Moreover, most construction machinery and heavy mining machinery enterprises are large in scale and relatively abundant in capital. In addition, this industry has a relatively good foundation in the application of automation technology, and it is easy to form a breakthrough.
In addition, we should also note that although the overall economic operation of the machinery industry has shown signs of rapid growth, the decline in export delivery value has accelerated, and the situation of foreign trade exports has not yet bottomed out. According to the forecast of the China Machinery Industry Federation, the annual foreign exchange earning in 2009 is expected to drop by about 10% from the previous year. Therefore, we cannot ignore the part of the demand gap brought to the automation market due to the downturn in the export situation.
Taking into account the different needs of automation industry in various sub-sectors of the machinery industry, the automation products market related to machinery manufacturing is expected to enter a comprehensive warm-up period in the second half of 2010, driven by the continuous upward trend of the machinery industry. However, in order to seize the opportunity of the development of the machinery industry, it is necessary for automation companies to take precautions from now on: on the one hand, improve the technical content of products, and seize the market share of high-end products; on the other hand, choose emerging target markets and do relevant technical reserves. These measures are necessary to quickly gain a foothold in the new round of competition.
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