Monoammonium phosphate will come out of the trough

Last week, the domestic monoammonium phosphate market was still in the doldrums, new orders were scarce, and the market volume was light. In terms of prices, it is difficult to maintain stability, and local regions have fallen against the market. In the Sichuan region where new production capacity is increasing, the price of monoammonium phosphate falls across the board, ranging from 20 to 50 yuan per ton. Prices in Hubei, where construction started relatively high, have also declined. However, under the support of high raw material costs, the decline has gradually narrowed. . With the approaching of Spring plowing, the monoammonium phosphate market is expected to gradually improve.

From the cost point of view, the increase in the price of raw materials and transportation has increased the support for monoammonium phosphate. First, the price of large areas of yellow prices, February 15 Sinopec raised the price of yellow in a wide range, in particular, a wider range of adjustment in the South, reducing the difference between the North and South market, is conducive to the late joint promotion. The second is that the phosphate rock is firm upwards. During the Spring Festival, the domestic mining enterprises stopped the security inspection as a whole, and most of them have still not been recovered. This has caused the situation of tight supply of phosphate ore after the holiday. Some mining companies have started to take advantage of the new single price. Third, the price of ** was substantially stronger. In mid-February, factory prices in Jiangsu, Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Anhui, Shanxi, Hubei, and Heilongjiang were all raised. Fourth, transportation price increases are expected. The rumors that railway freight rates will rise cause concern. China's phosphorus resources are mainly concentrated in the southwest and Hubei regions, and the transportation is not light in the cost of phosphate fertilizers.

From the fertilizer market, the overall trend is positive. With the warming of the weather, the fertilizer market started gradually, dealers' demand for stocking gradually resumed, and the urea-dominated trend of fertilizer leading products steadily rose. At the same time, the market for related products, diammonium phosphate, has been quietly started. The purchase of diammonium phosphate by grass-roots distribution units has also been gradually launched, and the price has risen significantly. In the context of the overall market for chemical fertilizers, it is difficult to sustain long-term monoammonium phosphate dragging.

From the perspective of demand, the situation of insufficient demand for monoammonium phosphate began to change. The domestic market for compound fertilizers gradually improved from south to north. The South China compound fertilizer market has started one after another and the sales situation is clearly promising; the Central Plains dealers' purchases for fertilizers have increased; the northeastern region's compound fertilizer market also has signs of start-up, orders for plants. The quantity has increased, especially the increase in new orders for manufacturers in Shandong and Hubei. According to statistics from China Fertilizer Network, the current operating rate of large-scale compound fertilizer plants is basically maintained at 78%. Last week, the market for compound fertilizer continued to slowly recover, and some mid- and low-end prices were raised. It is expected that the compound fertilizer market will see a clear improvement by March. After the Spring Festival, until now, the monoammonium phosphate market has suffered a dismal sale, leaving room for demand amplification.

However, there is a certain negative factor in the monoammonium phosphate market. As new construction and technical reform factories were successively put into production, and factories that mainly rely on export heavy calcium last year resumed production of ammonium phosphate, the operating rate of the entire ammonium phosphate did not fall, and large-scale compound fertilizer companies had enough raw materials before the Spring Festival. All of these will limit the improvement of the monoammonium phosphate market.

It is expected that the improvement of the monoammonium phosphate market will be a gradual process. When the spring cultivating and preparatory fertilizer is officially launched in March, it will start to improve markedly. After the opening of the fertilizer export window period in April, the monoammonium phosphate market will fundamentally improve.