[Comprehensive] Foreign Trade Situation Report Released: Three Factors Facilitate Export Stability

On November 2nd, the General Affairs Department of the Ministry of Commerce and the Institute of International Trade and Economic Cooperation jointly issued the "China's Foreign Trade Situation Report (Fall 2016)" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report"). In the first three quarters of 2016, China's foreign trade was generally presented. As a result, the steady development of foreign trade is accumulating and the trade structure has been further optimized. The "Report" predicts that by integrating all factors, China's import and export in 2016 will be expected to stabilize and improve. In 2017, the situation faced by China’s foreign trade development is still grim and complex. There are many uncertainties and uncertainties. At the same time, China’s foreign trade is at a critical stage where the pace of structural adjustment is quickened and new and old kinetic energy continue to switch, and the long-term good fundamentals have not changed. .

Three factors promote export stability

The "Report" pointed out that since the beginning of this year, global trade has been in a period of nearly 30 years, and China's foreign trade development is facing unprecedented pressure. According to statistics, in the first three quarters of this year, China’s total value of imports and exports in terms of RMB was 17.53 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.9% from the same period in 2015. However, at the same time, the decline in imports and exports in China narrowed quarter by quarter in the first three quarters. In terms of renminbi, imports and exports increased by 1.1% in the third quarter, which was an increase of 8.3 and 1.3% respectively over the first and second quarters.

According to the analysis of the "Report", three major factors have prompted the stability of import and export. First, in recent years, the Chinese government has introduced a series of policies and measures to support structural adjustment of foreign trade with steady growth, with strong pertinence and high gold content. The sustained release of policy results has effectively reduced the burden on enterprises, boosted business confidence, and stimulated the vitality of import and export companies. . Second, since 2016, China's economic operation has generally been stable, steady and progressing. The export industry structure has been optimized and international competitiveness has been continuously improved. Domestic demand has rebounded and imports have increased. Third, the overall level of international commodity prices rose moderately among the fluctuations, which led to a significant increase in the amount of imports. From the monthly data, imports in August and September have achieved positive growth for two consecutive months.

The "Report" also stressed that in the first three quarters of China's import and export, it also showed that the new kinetic energy of foreign trade continued to gather, private enterprises became the main force of exports, and they were moving toward "advanced excellence". Among them, general trade development is better than the overall, and the ability of Chinese foreign trade enterprises to independently develop international markets is further enhanced. At the same time, the status of private enterprises in China’s foreign trade development has further improved. In the first three quarters, China’s private enterprises exported 4.68 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.3%, accounting for 46.5% of the total value of exports, which exceeded the proportion of foreign-invested enterprises and state-owned enterprises’ exports respectively. The main force of exports. In addition, some hi-tech products have experienced rapid growth in exports, and exports of materials technology and aerospace technology products have increased by 10% and 12.3% respectively.

In addition, international commodity imports continued to increase in the first three quarters, which not only saved foreign exchange expenditures, but also helped companies reduce costs and increase efficiency. In addition, in the first three quarters of the year, China’s trade in traditional markets was clearly divided. Sino-U.S. bilateral trade decreased by 3.3%. China-EU, China-Japan bilateral trade increased by 2.7% and 2.9%, respectively. China’s exports to certain “Belt and Road” related countries maintained good Growth momentum.

Foreign trade structure is further optimized

In forecasting the external trade situation in 2016, the report believes that the slow growth of the world economy in the fourth quarter will not change, and the downward trend in global trade will remain serious. However, due to the consideration of domestic and international factors, China’s import and export are expected to stabilize and improve after unremitting efforts.

From the international perspective, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently estimated that the global economic growth for the entire year will be 3.1%, which is 0.1% lower than that of 2015 and the fifth consecutive year will be lower than the long-term average of 3.7%. The lack of effective demand in developed economies, the slowing pace of recovery, and the warming of trade protection, “reverse globalization” and populist trends not only affected short-term economic growth, but also caused damage to long-term potential growth rates. The Brexit influence of the United Kingdom continues to ferment, adding new uncertainties to the world economy.

Judging from the domestic situation, the overall operation of the national economy in the first three quarters of the year was generally steady, stable, and progressing. It was better than expected. It was reflected in the continuous upgrading of the industrial structure, continuous improvement in the demand structure, better-than-expected employment conditions, stable consumer spending, overall moderate consumer prices, and steady growth in money and credit.

Based on this, the "Report" analysis pointed out that the current situation in China's foreign trade development is still complex and severe. Considering that the monthly import and export base after September 2015 is generally higher, the import and export downward pressure remains large in the fourth quarter. In terms of exports, the fourth quarter is the peak season for foreign trade, and exports are expected to continue to stabilize. On the import side, the overall price of the main imported products picked up and formed some support for imports. However, due to factors such as continued decline in imports of processing trade, the overall growth rate of imports in the fourth quarter will remain low. Considering comprehensively, it is expected that China's import and export this year is still expected to achieve stability and improvement, and the foreign trade structure will be further optimized, and the quality and efficiency of development will continue to increase. Not long ago, Assistant Minister of Commerce Zhang Jian specifically pointed out that the international environment and internal conditions of China’s foreign trade development have undergone great changes. Exports are mainly affected by the continuing downturn in international market demand and weakening of traditional industrial competitive advantages. Imports are mainly affected by commodity prices. Due to the impact of the decline and the weakening of domestic import demand, it is necessary to make strenuous efforts to achieve the goal of stabilizing the foreign trade in the year.

Li Jian, a researcher of the Institute of International Trade and Economic Cooperation of the Ministry of Commerce, said in an interview with reporters that the goal of China’s foreign trade to maintain its international market share without reduction is achievable this year. At present, the decline in foreign trade denominated in RMB is further shrinking. This year's foreign trade scale in China is also likely to be the same as last year.

Cultivate new momentum for the development of foreign trade

Looking ahead to the outlook for the development of China’s foreign trade next year, the “Report” believes that there are many unfavorable factors such as the fragile global economic recovery, the continuing profound evolution of the international trade pattern, the “reverse globalization” heating up, and the deterioration of the international trade and investment environment.

It can be seen that the situation facing the development of China’s foreign trade in 2017 is still severe and complex, but it is also at a critical stage where the pace of structural adjustment is quickened and new and old kinetic energy continue to switch, and the long-term good fundamentals have not changed. The "Report" pointed out here that with the steady development of foreign trade, structural adjustment policies have continued to take effect, and the process of transformation and upgrading of import and export enterprises is accelerating. China's foreign trade in global market share in 2017 is expected to remain basically stable, and the status of the import and export of big countries will continue to be consolidated. The quality and efficiency continue to increase, and the trade structure continues to be optimized. The "Report" believes that the new situation and new requirements for the development of foreign trade need to focus on accelerating the development of new momentum in foreign trade development and focus on promoting the transformation and upgrading of foreign trade.

When talking about the situation of foreign trade in 2017, Li Jian pointed out that the overall situation in the next year is not optimistic, but some positive factors will still promote foreign trade to maintain a certain growth. He said that there is still much work to be done to promote the stability of foreign trade. On the one hand, it must unswervingly implement the strategy of opening to the outside world. Through the expansion of opening up, domestic enterprises should be encouraged to increase their vitality and increase their participation in the international division of labor and competition; on the other hand, they should promote the further optimization of the structure of foreign trade merchandise and the structure of trade development. Accelerate the transfer of some processing trade projects in the coastal areas of China to the interior. By persisting in opening to the outside world and insisting on innovation and development, we have achieved a higher level of participation in the international division of labor and competition. (Economic Daily)