Three major steel companies rose in September, steel prices rose or volatility
In the second half of August, the intensive period of the first half of the year for large steel companies will be ushered in, and the long-awaited results have been greatly announced, making people full of embarrassment for these semi-annual reports.
But at the same time, Qi Lu, a senior analyst in the steel industry of Qilu Securities, told the reporter of "Daily Economic News" that brokers basically downgraded their ratings on steel stocks in the second half of the year.
Baosteel's moderate price adjustment is conducive to curbing speculation
According to the latest monitoring of the spot trading platform "Xiben Shinkansen", as of August 13, the price of high-grade third-grade rebar in Shanghai has been adjusted to about 4030 yuan / ton, up 70 yuan / ton from last Friday. After a lapse of nearly three months, the Shanghai steel price terminal once again touched the 4,000 yuan/ton mark, and the rebound rate in the half month was close to 10%.
On August 16, Baosteel, Wuhan Iron and Steel and Anshan Iron and Steel, the three major domestic steel giants known as “wind vanesâ€, adjusted the price of steel products in September. Among them, the steel faucet Baosteel's various varieties are directly or indirectly raised by 150 yuan / ton ~ 800 yuan / ton; WISCO shares increased by 200 yuan / ton ~ 800 yuan / ton per ton from August 17; and Angang's price adjustment range The largest, raised 350 yuan / ton ~ 1000 yuan / ton.
Zhu Xi'an, the manager of our steel information department, said that Baosteel's price adjustment represents their views on the current market. "It shows that Baosteel has maintained a more cautious attitude towards the steel market. The steel market is not as good as imagined. They are from the price adjustment cycle and the varieties. There are reservations for the later period, which is also conducive to curbing the market to use the price adjustment of big steel mills for speculation."
The industry believes that the rebound in steel prices in the first two weeks was dominated by traders' bottom-selling, but last week some of the leading steel mills have become the main force to continue to push up prices.
Hou Zhizhen of Lange Steel Information Research Center told the reporter of "Daily Economic News" that with the sharp drop in iron ore prices in late April this year, steel prices also fell, and some steel companies showed a phenomenon of cost and market price hanging upside down. At the beginning of July, Tangshan 150 billet once fell to 3,370 yuan, this price has fallen below the 3,450 yuan bottom line expected by steel traders, so traders and downstream manufacturers have begun to enter the market to replenish stocks, this wave of rebound started, and rebounded The reason is that the bargain-hunting funds caused by factors such as production cuts and steel mill cost lines have entered the market. "This wave of rise is essentially an oversold rebound, with some speculative factors." Hou Zhizhen told reporters.
Surging performance due to low base last year
On August 18, Angang Steel (000898, SZ), which ranks second in the total market capitalization of the domestic steel industry, is about to announce its semi-annual report. The performance report shows that the net profit for the first half of the year is expected to be 2.22 billion to 3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 242% to 292%. Based on the stock price of 8.6 yuan on August 16, its price-earnings ratio is only 14 times, and the lowest is only 10.4 times. As of last Friday (August 13), the average P/E ratio of SSE A shares was 19.62 times. In other words, compared with the broader market, Angang still has a large valuation advantage.
On August 27th, Hebei Iron and Steel (000709, SZ), whose total output has jumped to the top in China, will announce its semi-annual report. The performance report shows that the net profit for the first half of the year is expected to be 550 million to 800 million yuan, an increase of 475% to 737%.
On August 28, Baosteel Co., Ltd. (600019, SH), which has the highest total market capitalization of the domestic steel industry, will disclose its semi-annual report. The preview shows that the net profit growth in the first half of the year was 6 to 10 times...
Other semi-annual reports of steel companies to be announced, the pre-increased performance of the steel plate (000761, SZ) disclosed on August 24, the net profit is about 650 million to 750 million yuan; disclosed on August 27 Taigang Stainless (000825, SZ), net profit is expected to be 800 million to 1.1 billion yuan......
Although steel companies performed well in the first half of the year, most analysts are not optimistic about this sector. Some insiders told the "Daily Economic News" reporter that the steel price may fluctuate higher. However, brokers basically downgraded their ratings on steel stocks in the second half of the year, and the market for steel is basically the same as in July and August.
Qi Hui, a senior analyst in the steel industry of Qilu Securities, believes that whether the steel companies really make money is better than the profit in the first half of 2008, because the base in 2009 is too low and there is no comparability. In addition, the current steel stocks are basically based on PB valuation, and rarely pay attention to PE. "Daily Economic News" reporters looked at the profitability of various steel companies in 2008, found that Baosteel's earnings per share was 0.55 yuan, and this year's highest is only 0.44 yuan, the gap is more than 20%.
Luo Bing, executive vice president of China Steel Association, revealed that the sales profit rate of large and medium-sized steel enterprises in the first half of the year was only 3.47%, which was lower than the average profit level of China's industrial industry.
There are three major points of demand in the second half of the year.
Lange Steel's August 13 study found that although the current steel production costs have fallen back to high, they are still high compared to the past. At the end of July, the pig iron cost index was 127.9, which is equivalent to the level in mid-March. At this time, it was the beginning of the sharp increase in the price of imported iron ore. “A lot of steel companies were losing money in June.†Hou Zhisheng told reporters, “The increase in the price of this wave of steel has not been amplified, which has made it difficult for steel companies to make up for the losses in the previous period. Still look at the demand."
According to the data released by China Steel Association, China's crude steel output in July was 51.74 million tons, up 2.2% year-on-year; but the average daily production of crude steel was 1.669 million tons. Compared with 1.79 million tons in June, the average daily output decreased by 123,000 tons. Decrease by 6.9%. This is also the third consecutive month of crude steel output decline since May and June. At present, the overall inventory of the steel industry is at a historical high. At the end of July, the social inventory was 15.56 million tons, an increase of 19.3% over the beginning of the year.
The month-on-month decline in July was attributed to the country’s cancellation of the export tax rebate policy and the steel equipment’s own equipment overhaul. According to the incomplete statistics of the Lange Steel Information Research Center, 45 steel companies were repaired and repaired in July. In August, in the case of rising prices, this part of the production line is likely to resume production.
From the perspective of demand, the sluggish volume indicates that more traders are bottom-selling and downstream users are making up the price, which is not the real overall demand. "At present, automobile production and sales are declining, real estate regulation, coupled with high temperatures and heavy rains have curbed demand for steel." Hou Zhixuan said, "However, demand in the second half of the year is still interesting. One is the rapid and short-term demand for post-disaster reconstruction. One is to increase investment in the construction of affordable housing this year. There is also that Jin Jiuyin 10 is coming soon, and manufacturing companies will replenish stocks during this period, and finally the traditional winter storage behavior."
But at the same time, Qi Lu, a senior analyst in the steel industry of Qilu Securities, told the reporter of "Daily Economic News" that brokers basically downgraded their ratings on steel stocks in the second half of the year.
Baosteel's moderate price adjustment is conducive to curbing speculation
According to the latest monitoring of the spot trading platform "Xiben Shinkansen", as of August 13, the price of high-grade third-grade rebar in Shanghai has been adjusted to about 4030 yuan / ton, up 70 yuan / ton from last Friday. After a lapse of nearly three months, the Shanghai steel price terminal once again touched the 4,000 yuan/ton mark, and the rebound rate in the half month was close to 10%.
On August 16, Baosteel, Wuhan Iron and Steel and Anshan Iron and Steel, the three major domestic steel giants known as “wind vanesâ€, adjusted the price of steel products in September. Among them, the steel faucet Baosteel's various varieties are directly or indirectly raised by 150 yuan / ton ~ 800 yuan / ton; WISCO shares increased by 200 yuan / ton ~ 800 yuan / ton per ton from August 17; and Angang's price adjustment range The largest, raised 350 yuan / ton ~ 1000 yuan / ton.
Zhu Xi'an, the manager of our steel information department, said that Baosteel's price adjustment represents their views on the current market. "It shows that Baosteel has maintained a more cautious attitude towards the steel market. The steel market is not as good as imagined. They are from the price adjustment cycle and the varieties. There are reservations for the later period, which is also conducive to curbing the market to use the price adjustment of big steel mills for speculation."
The industry believes that the rebound in steel prices in the first two weeks was dominated by traders' bottom-selling, but last week some of the leading steel mills have become the main force to continue to push up prices.
Hou Zhizhen of Lange Steel Information Research Center told the reporter of "Daily Economic News" that with the sharp drop in iron ore prices in late April this year, steel prices also fell, and some steel companies showed a phenomenon of cost and market price hanging upside down. At the beginning of July, Tangshan 150 billet once fell to 3,370 yuan, this price has fallen below the 3,450 yuan bottom line expected by steel traders, so traders and downstream manufacturers have begun to enter the market to replenish stocks, this wave of rebound started, and rebounded The reason is that the bargain-hunting funds caused by factors such as production cuts and steel mill cost lines have entered the market. "This wave of rise is essentially an oversold rebound, with some speculative factors." Hou Zhizhen told reporters.
Surging performance due to low base last year
On August 18, Angang Steel (000898, SZ), which ranks second in the total market capitalization of the domestic steel industry, is about to announce its semi-annual report. The performance report shows that the net profit for the first half of the year is expected to be 2.22 billion to 3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 242% to 292%. Based on the stock price of 8.6 yuan on August 16, its price-earnings ratio is only 14 times, and the lowest is only 10.4 times. As of last Friday (August 13), the average P/E ratio of SSE A shares was 19.62 times. In other words, compared with the broader market, Angang still has a large valuation advantage.
On August 27th, Hebei Iron and Steel (000709, SZ), whose total output has jumped to the top in China, will announce its semi-annual report. The performance report shows that the net profit for the first half of the year is expected to be 550 million to 800 million yuan, an increase of 475% to 737%.
On August 28, Baosteel Co., Ltd. (600019, SH), which has the highest total market capitalization of the domestic steel industry, will disclose its semi-annual report. The preview shows that the net profit growth in the first half of the year was 6 to 10 times...
Other semi-annual reports of steel companies to be announced, the pre-increased performance of the steel plate (000761, SZ) disclosed on August 24, the net profit is about 650 million to 750 million yuan; disclosed on August 27 Taigang Stainless (000825, SZ), net profit is expected to be 800 million to 1.1 billion yuan......
Although steel companies performed well in the first half of the year, most analysts are not optimistic about this sector. Some insiders told the "Daily Economic News" reporter that the steel price may fluctuate higher. However, brokers basically downgraded their ratings on steel stocks in the second half of the year, and the market for steel is basically the same as in July and August.
Qi Hui, a senior analyst in the steel industry of Qilu Securities, believes that whether the steel companies really make money is better than the profit in the first half of 2008, because the base in 2009 is too low and there is no comparability. In addition, the current steel stocks are basically based on PB valuation, and rarely pay attention to PE. "Daily Economic News" reporters looked at the profitability of various steel companies in 2008, found that Baosteel's earnings per share was 0.55 yuan, and this year's highest is only 0.44 yuan, the gap is more than 20%.
Luo Bing, executive vice president of China Steel Association, revealed that the sales profit rate of large and medium-sized steel enterprises in the first half of the year was only 3.47%, which was lower than the average profit level of China's industrial industry.
There are three major points of demand in the second half of the year.
Lange Steel's August 13 study found that although the current steel production costs have fallen back to high, they are still high compared to the past. At the end of July, the pig iron cost index was 127.9, which is equivalent to the level in mid-March. At this time, it was the beginning of the sharp increase in the price of imported iron ore. “A lot of steel companies were losing money in June.†Hou Zhisheng told reporters, “The increase in the price of this wave of steel has not been amplified, which has made it difficult for steel companies to make up for the losses in the previous period. Still look at the demand."
According to the data released by China Steel Association, China's crude steel output in July was 51.74 million tons, up 2.2% year-on-year; but the average daily production of crude steel was 1.669 million tons. Compared with 1.79 million tons in June, the average daily output decreased by 123,000 tons. Decrease by 6.9%. This is also the third consecutive month of crude steel output decline since May and June. At present, the overall inventory of the steel industry is at a historical high. At the end of July, the social inventory was 15.56 million tons, an increase of 19.3% over the beginning of the year.
The month-on-month decline in July was attributed to the country’s cancellation of the export tax rebate policy and the steel equipment’s own equipment overhaul. According to the incomplete statistics of the Lange Steel Information Research Center, 45 steel companies were repaired and repaired in July. In August, in the case of rising prices, this part of the production line is likely to resume production.
From the perspective of demand, the sluggish volume indicates that more traders are bottom-selling and downstream users are making up the price, which is not the real overall demand. "At present, automobile production and sales are declining, real estate regulation, coupled with high temperatures and heavy rains have curbed demand for steel." Hou Zhixuan said, "However, demand in the second half of the year is still interesting. One is the rapid and short-term demand for post-disaster reconstruction. One is to increase investment in the construction of affordable housing this year. There is also that Jin Jiuyin 10 is coming soon, and manufacturing companies will replenish stocks during this period, and finally the traditional winter storage behavior."
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