Global polyurethane diversification competition China's largest net importer

Global consumer demand for polypropylene is currently maintaining a rapid growth momentum. In particular, China and India have become the drivers of growth in polypropylene demand. Europe, North America, and the Asia-Pacific region are the major regions for polypropylene consumption, accounting for 3/4 of global consumption. Polypropylene supply is concentrated in North America, Middle East, Asia Pacific, and Europe. The Middle East and China have a faster capacity growth. The former has cheap oil and gas resources, while the latter has a huge gap in domestic demand.

The North American polypropylene market rebounded again. After the Spring Festival, the North American polypropylene market has picked up. The price has soared to 17 cents per pound since February 1, and since January 1, the sales price of PET bottles has been in the region. It has risen to 4 cents/lb. Polypropylene was the first increase since May 2011. Such extreme fluctuations led some buyers to consider using other materials instead of polypropylene. It is reported that the price increase in February led to a tight supply of polypropylene. 'Some large-scale refineries have to fall,' said PP Technology Market Analyst. Cout Newell added, 'Polypropylene prices have come out of the trough and will return to normal prices. '

Buyers located in the Midwestern United States stated, 'Our cost price has risen, but the price we have signed with our customers will not change.' 'Great fluctuations in prices have damaged their short-term cash flow, so some companies are looking to buy market resources outside of North America, and some buyers are looking for other materials to replace polypropylene.

According to analysis by the American Chemistry Council, sales of the North American polypropylene industry fell by more than 4% in 2011. It is estimated that in 2012, the total sales volume of polypropylene in North America will reach 16.4 billion pounds, and 94% will come from domestic sales.

According to the company's forecast, North America and Western Europe will become polypropylene net import regions by 2013. By 2013, North America will import nearly 220,000 tons of polypropylene net, while Western Europe will import 1.22 million tons of polypropylene. By then, two Asian companies PetroChina and India Trust Industries are expected to replace Total Petrochemical and Ineos Europe. The company has entered the ranks of the top five polypropylene manufacturers in the world.

Per capita consumption of polypropylene in densely populated India, Indonesia, China, and South America is increasing, and is expected to remain below 15 kg per capita in North America by 2013. With the total population of these regions reaching 4 billion, the demand for polypropylene will expand and the market conditions will improve.

China, the largest net importer of polypropylene in China, has more than 80 polypropylene production enterprises in China. By the end of 2011, the polypropylene production capacity was 12.7 million tons and the actual output was 9.17 million tons. In 2011, the apparent consumption of polypropylene in China was 13.89 million tons. The average growth rate of consumption from 2002 to 2010 was 10.7%, which greatly exceeded the average growth rate of 6% in the world. The strong market demand gave birth to the rapid development of the polypropylene industry. .

It is reported that in 2005 global polypropylene production capacity, production and consumption were 43.617 million tons, 39.924 million tons and 39.85 million tons, respectively, in 2011 were 68.574 million tons, 57.376 million tons and 57.376 million tons. In the future, the oversupply of polypropylene in China is inevitable.

At the same time, under the support of high raw material propylene prices and tight marketable resources, the atmosphere for increasing polypropylene prices is relatively strong, supply is tight, and the quotations are rising significantly. In early February, the mainstream quoted price of China's polypropylene market was 10,200 to 10,650 yuan/ton.

However, although production capacity has been increasing year by year, polypropylene in China is still in a situation where supply exceeds supply. Self-sufficiency rate is 60%, and the gap is still made up by imports. The import volume increased from 2.24 million tons in 2002 to 4.8 million tons in 2010. China has become the world's largest net importer of polypropylene.

At present, a new development trend is emerging: based on existing coal-to-methanol production plants, new methanol plants will be used to supplement production capacity or to purchase a portion of methanol feedstock, and to develop methanol to olefins and downstream projects. Currently Shenhua, Shenhua Ning Coal and Lenovo and other companies are developing such projects.

The data shows that there are more than 20 coal-based polypropylene and methanol-based polypropylene projects that are being launched and planned in China alone, with a capacity of 6 million to 10 million tons per year.

In December 2011, China produced 919,000 tons of polypropylene resin, an increase of 5.98% year-on-year. China Business Intelligence Network data show that: from January to December 2011, the national production of polypropylene resin reached 9.805 million tons, an increase of 8.87%. From the perspective of the output of all provinces and cities, from January to December 2011, the first three provinces of polypropylene resin production in China were Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Shanghai, which accounted for 14.71%, 11.23%, and 7.91% of the total output respectively.