Excessive refining capacity, strong export growth of refined oil products in China

According to the data released by the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation recently, in the first half of this year, China’s oil product export volume increased significantly, with gasoline export volume up 67.83% year-on-year, and diesel oil export volume up 21.98% year-on-year. January and April refined oil export volume The increase was more than 100%, and the increase in April was as high as 386.09%. Zhuo Chuang Information Oil Product Analyst Qi Yuqin believes that in recent years domestic refinery capacity has been put into production centrally, and demand growth has slowed down. Strong export growth is a direct result of the growth in oil supply exceeding demand.

Driven by related development plans and the expansion of production capacity of enterprises, China's refining capacity has grown rapidly. According to the National Development and Reform Commission's medium and long-term oil refining plan, this year, China will form about 20 million-ton-ton crude oil processing bases, with processing capacity accounting for 65% of the country's total, and the average size of enterprises will reach 5.7 million tons per year; the national petrochemical revitalization plan is proposed. In the future, China will form 10 major oil refining bases, including refineries with a scale of more than 30 million tons/year – Ningbo, Shanghai, Nanjing, Dalian, and refineries with a scale of more than 20 million tons/year – Tianjin, Caofeidian, Maoming, Guangzhou Huizhou, Quanzhou. According to Qi Yuqin statistics, last year PetroChina and Sinopec's two major groups put into production refinery capacity of 33 million tons. In the first half of this year, only Shandong local refineries added 12 million tons of new production capacity.

Compared with supply, China's refined oil consumption, especially short-term consumption growth, is obviously "lagging behind." Zhou Xi'an, director of the comprehensive department of the National Energy Administration, previously stated that as the country takes measures to limit the development of high-energy-consuming industries, domestic diesel demand may decline in the second half of this year. Dong Xiucheng, vice president of the School of Business Administration of China University of Petroleum also pointed out that Affected by the macroeconomic situation, China's diesel demand growth will slow down in the second half of the year.

"The slowdown in China's economic growth has been a foregone conclusion in recent years. In the next few years, the refined oil market will maintain a state of overcapacity." Qi Yuqin said, "In order to ensure a balance between supply and demand in the domestic market, it is necessary to increase exports."