China's economic uncertainty highlights the hard landing and stagflation risk aggregation?

This week, the Chinese stock market fell after the "Black Monday" and fell to a new low in the past six months. The reasons behind the macro level are generally interpreted as investors worried that the economic growth will slow down, and the risks of “hard landing” and “stagflation” begin to gather. Although GDP grew by 9.7% year-on-year in the first quarter, economic data in April supported the “slowdown”. The increase in the value of industrial enterprises above designated size and the total retail sales of consumer goods have all declined. HSBC’s China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index, released this week, fell to 51.1, the lowest in 10 months, indicating a significant contraction in manufacturing. Economists interviewed said that the most worrying thing is that on the one hand, the current situation of high inflation is not expected to ease in the short term, while the negative impact of the tightening monetary policy on the kinetic energy of the real economy is magnifying. They generally believe that the current situation is "complex." Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council of China, said: "The risk of economic slowdown cannot be ruled out. At present, the basis for judging that growth will slow down significantly is not yet sufficient and needs further observation." Zhuang Jian, senior economist at the Asian Development Bank China Office It seems that the economic slowdown in the tightening monetary policy environment is almost certain. But it is too early to worry about "hard landing" and "stagflation." “Stagflation” refers to the economic phenomenon in which economic growth stagnates and high inflation, unemployment and sluggishness exist simultaneously. “Hard landing” means that when the economy grows too fast and there is severe inflation, the policy imposed by one country is too tight, leading to an increase in unemployment and a rapid decline in economic speed. China does not have a definitive definition of "the economy is falling too fast." 8% is widely considered to be the lowest rate for the Chinese economy to guarantee healthy operation, full employment and social stability. The global financial crisis hit China's exports so hard that economic growth fell sharply to a freezing point of 6.1% in the first quarter of 2009, causing a large number of enterprises to close down and tens of millions of migrant workers unemployed. Despite this, Zhuang Jian said that the future growth of the Chinese economy is unlikely to be less than 8%. “After the financial crisis, China’s economy has undergone structural adjustment and endogenous power has been strengthened. China’s development stage and the continuation of urbanization and the irreversibility of infrastructure construction have provided huge room for economic growth,” said Zhuang Jian. The "righteousness" of macroeconomic regulation and control in the direction of economic sustainability. Peng Wensheng, chief economist at CICC, said that the decline during the financial crisis is unlikely to reappear today. The global economy is still recovering moderately and external demand is relatively stable. Foreign trade data in recent months also support this view. Although most economists and research institutes say that it is too early for the Chinese economy to have a “hard landing” or “stagflation”, the negative impact of the tightening policy under high inflation on the macro economy is magnified. In view of the pivotal role of monetary policy in macroeconomic trends, how to control the intensity and measure of the policy is a huge test of the government's macro-control ability. Affected by imported inflationary pressures, domestic pressures on rising costs, and last year's hikes, China's consumer price index (CPI) has been running at a high level for nearly half a year. In March, it rose by 5.4%, the highest increase in 32 months, and slightly slowed down to 5.3% in April. Food price increases have been double-digit for six consecutive months. The central bank has always used anti-inflation as its main goal of monetary policy. Since the monetary policy changed from “loose” to “stable” in October last year, the central bank has raised interest rates four times and raised the bank deposit reserve ratio eight times until the current historical high of 21%. Zhang Hanya, a researcher at the Investment Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that the financing of SMEs under the tightening of monetary policy is more difficult, and the cost of raw materials and labor is rising, making it harder to make money. If enterprises cut production in this situation, they will inevitably push up prices, but they will not play a role in curbing inflation. Ba Shusong, a researcher at the Financial Research Institute of the Development Research Center of the State Council, believes that the government should prevent the austerity policy from being "overshooted." Due to the obvious time difference between the economic growth rate and the fall in the inflation rate, fierce austerity measures may bring excessive downward pressure on the economy. A report from Nomura Securities stated that “decision makers must be very cautious now. If the authorities overreact to inflation, investment may quickly weaken, which will lead to a risk of a hard landing. In addition, too loose policies may trigger asset price bubbles. Such bubbles will almost certainly be shattered." How to grasp the strength and node of monetary policy has always been a difficult point in the regulatory functions of central banks. For example, in 2008, the first half of the year was still implementing a tight monetary policy. Unexpectedly, under the impact of the international financial crisis, the economic downturn was serious. After the central bank announced that the monetary policy was changed from “tight” to “moderately loose” at the end of the year, the action was slightly slow. So that the central bank cut interest rates four times in the last three months of the year. Recently, many international economic organizations and institutions have lowered their forecasts for China's economic growth. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development lowered its forecast for China's 2011 GDP in its economic outlook report released on Wednesday, down from an estimated 9.7% growth in November last year to 9.0%. It also raised its 2011 CPI forecast, which was revised from a previous forecast of 3.3% to 4.6%. Goldman Sachs lowered its forecast for China's 2011 economic growth rate from 10.0% to 9.4% on Tuesday. However, Wang Jian, secretary-general of the China Macroeconomics Association, said that currency regulation will not be unlimited. The second and third quarters will enter the observation period. It is also possible to adjust the deposit reserve ratio, but the rate hike is over, with the economic downturn, fourth. The quarterly currency will turn to relaxation. The OECD also predicts that China's economic growth in 2011 will be constrained by domestic tightening monetary policy, which makes the Chinese government may slow down the pace of tightening.  

Steel Sleeve

It provides Steel Pipe sleeves for all pipes passing through concrete or masonry structures. An excellent choice for installations where the Modular Seal and Sleeve assembly would be subject to extremely high temperatures or where fire seals are specified. Steel Wall Sleeves available in Painted or Galvanized; Steel Collar; Continuous Weld-Bead on both sides of collar.

Steel Sleeve,Steel Sleeve Structural,Steel Construction Material,Subway Accessory Steel Sleeve

Anshan Lijian Engineering Group Co. LTD , https://www.lijianformwork.com