Analysis of economic operation of machine tool industry in the third quarter of 2009
In the third quarter, China's macroeconomic situation continued to maintain an upward trend after the second quarter. The economic recovery was faster than expected. The relevant state departments believed that there was no suspense in the annual economic growth of Baobao. The main driving force for the current growth is domestic demand, especially the strong investment growth and consumption, and the import and export still have no signs of rebound. In the first three quarters, the growth rate of industrial output value of China's machine tool industry was steadily increasing. The monthly growth rate in July, August and September has risen to double-digit growth; the profit decline of the whole industry has narrowed, and the loss-making enterprises have narrowed down; The sharp decline has not improved, and the decline in exports has been particularly serious. From the first nine months of each month, the main statistical data trend judgment: Thanks to the national economic stimulus package, after March, the indicators of the machine tool industry stabilized, and the confidence of the enterprise market increased. From January to September, the production and sales rate of machine tools reached 97.2%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year.
First, from January to September, the overall economic growth rate of the industry stabilized and developed. The stimulus measures of the country's response to the financial crisis gradually appeared in the machine tool industry. In the first two quarters of this year, the industrial output value of the machine tool industry has been growing at a rate of about 5% year-on-year, while the growth rate in July, August and September was relatively high, driving the cumulative growth rate from January to September to reach 9.1%, and the development trend stabilized. The completion of this year's total industrial output value and the year-on-year growth rate are shown in Figure 1.
Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that from 1 to September, 5,876 machines and tools industry completed a total industrial output value of 272.62 billion yuan, an increase of 9.1% year-on-year; September total industrial output value increased by 18.2%. The growth rate of the total industrial output value of the five types of enterprises has increased, among which privately-held enterprises and other types of enterprises have achieved a relatively high growth rate of 19.0% and 17.7% respectively; collective holding companies have shaken off negative growth and achieved 1.1% The degree of decline in state-owned enterprises has slowed down from the first half of the year to -6.7%; Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan and foreign-controlled enterprises have developed better than the first half of the year, but the rate of decline is still double-digit, -13.7% and -16.9 respectively. %.
Second, the gold cutting machine industry small industry stopped the decline of the machine tool industry, the production value accounted for 1/4 of the total industry's total amount of gold cutting machine tool industry since April this year for five consecutive months, the cumulative industrial output value of negative growth, the decline is basically maintained 2%. In September, the monthly industrial output value growth rate reached 12.0%, an increase of 8.5% from the previous month, and the growth rate was relatively large. The cumulative industrial output value growth from January to September was the same as that of the same period of last year, and stopped falling.
According to the statistics of 125 key contact machine companies in China, the monthly gross industrial output value is negative, except for March and September. After March, the monthly gross industrial output value of the Jinchee machine tool industry fluctuated mainly between 4 and 5 billion yuan. In August, it exceeded 5 billion yuan, a significant increase from the first few months of this year, but it is still unstable, and it has fallen back in September. In view of the low base last year, there was a significant increase in the same period in September.
The completion of monthly industrial output value of 125 key cutting enterprises of gold cutting machine tools from January to September in 2008 is shown in Figure 2.
The growth rate of product sales revenue in the whole industry from January to August increased by 0.9 percentage points from January to May, and increased by 6.7% year-on-year. However, the sales revenue of Jinchee's small-scale machine products decreased by 1.4 percentage points year-on-year compared with January-May. Obviously, the machine tool industry is generally improving, but the gold cutting machine industry is still unstable.
Third, the market demand accelerates to the high-end and large-scale changes The financial crisis has different impacts on the demand for machine tools in various fields of China's national economy. Many industries have reduced the amount of equipment purchased. Some industries such as energy, railway, aviation, and automobiles still have machine tools. Larger demand. However, the demand structure of the market is accelerating and changing. The demand for ordinary and low-grade CNC machine tools has shrunk dramatically, and large-scale and high-end CNC machine tools still maintain stable demand.
Machine Tool Association statistics on 197 key contact enterprises: From January to September 2009, the numerical control rate of metal processing machine tool output was 53.6%, an increase of 6.0 percentage points year-on-year. The output of gold cutting machine tools and the output of CNC machine tools decreased by 30.6% and 13.8% respectively over the same period, and the decline was narrowed month by month. The average unit price of gold cutting machine tools and CNC gold cutting machine tools were 202,000 yuan and 457,000 yuan respectively, which were 34% and 21% higher than the same period of last year. The output reduction of ordinary machine tools is larger than that of CNC machine tools. The economical CNC machine tools in CNC machine tools have a significant decline, which leads to an increase in the numerical control rate and an increase in the unit price. In addition, the efforts of enterprises in the industry to increase the production of large and heavy-duty machine tools have also contributed to the increase in the unit price of machine tools. One of the factors.
Figure 3 shows that from the second half of 2008 to September 2009, the average unit price growth rate of machine tools is accelerating, especially in the first half of 2009, an average increase of more than 10 percentage points from a year ago.
The data shows that the import of machine parts in the third quarter of this year reached the peak of the last four quarters. Obviously, the number of domestically produced machine tools that need to be equipped with imported parts is increasing. It can be seen that there is a further demand for medium and high-end domestic machine tools in the market at present and in the future. The effect of adjusting the structure of domestic enterprises has initially appeared.
In order to adapt to the needs of the Chinese market, the structure of imported machine tools has been constantly changing to high-end and large-scale. This trend can be seen from the unit price of imported machine tools. From January to September this year, the average unit price of imported machine tools was US$89,000, an increase of 11% over the same period last year.
From January to September, the import of machine tools did not get rid of the downward trend, but the monthly import volume in September was larger than that in the previous two months, indicating an upward trend. China's cumulative import value from January to September was 7.26 billion US dollars, down 22.8% year-on-year, of which metal processing machine tools imported 4.51 billion US dollars, down 21.2%.
After the monthly import value of China's machine tool products reached the highest value of 990 million US dollars in June, after a decline of 7 or 8 months, it climbed again in September, reaching 940 million US dollars, a decrease of 16.4% over the same period and a 31.5% increase from the previous month. Become the second month of this year to import more than 900 million US dollars. Metal processing machine imports increased significantly in September, with monthly imports of 540 million US dollars, an increase of 170 million US dollars from August, an increase of 45.4%.
Fourth, the export depth has declined, and the structure needs to be optimized. Due to the financial crisis, the international machine tool market continues to be sluggish. In the first nine months of 2009, the consumer markets of the world's major machine tool producing countries and regions experienced a sharp decline. The export of machine tools in China has declined in depth and the structure needs to be optimized.
From January to September, the export of machine tool products was US$ 3.39 billion, down 37.9% year-on-year; among them, metal processing machine tools exported US$ 1.03 billion, down 36.3% year-on-year. Comparing the monthly export volume, it seems that it has bottomed out and showed signs of rebound. The monthly export volume of the whole industry showed a slight upward trend. The export volume in September reached the highest monthly value of 460 million US dollars this year, and 7 small industries exported in the same month. Positive growth. The monthly export situation of the machine tool industry and metal processing machine tools is shown in Figure 4 and Figure 5.
At present, the export structure of metal processing machine tools in China needs to be optimized. Recent export data show that the unit price of export machine tools continues to fall, and the average unit price has dropped by 25%. The following types of machine tools, the unit price drop is large, should attract the attention of the industry: combined processing machine tools, CNC horizontal lathes, CNC gear processing machines, bench drills, polishing machines, planers, broaching machines, sawing machines, forming bending machines, punching machines, Mechanical press. These types of products are mainly export products with low added value and traditional advantages. The decline in unit price may be the reason why the country's recent increase in tax rebates has reduced the cost of enterprises, and it may also be the active price reduction of enterprises to seize the international market share. behavior. With the increasing international trade protectionism, it is easy to suffer trade lawsuits from other countries through low-cost access to international markets. Chinese enterprises should adjust the structure of export products in time to the changes in the international market and expand the export of machine tools and tools.
In China's export products, there are also many types of machine tool export unit prices continue to rise, such as: other CNC lathes, CNC boring and milling machines, CNC gantry milling machines, CNC grinding machines, horizontal and gantry machining centers, forging or stamping machine tools, cutting machine tools, this It reflects the trend of China's export products to high-end and large-scale development, and it is also one of the directions for us to adjust the structure of export products.
V. The main work that the current industry urgently needs to do. Although the current market demand has risen and fallen, the products have increased or decreased, and the enterprises have regressed, but the most important thing is that there is a big gap between the industry product structure and market requirements, resulting in on-hand orders. The problems of lack of follow-up orders, weak anti-impact ability, falling profits, and the increasingly fragile corporate liquidity chain are very prominent, and the economic situation of the industry is still grim.
1. Accelerate the adjustment of product structure and eliminate backward production capacity. In order to cope with the financial crisis, a series of economic stimulus plans have been introduced to drive many industries to enter the peak period of investment. These investments are often accompanied by product structure adjustment and even industrial restructuring. Therefore, the market is concerned with product performance. Manufacturing processes, services, prices, etc. have all put forward new requirements. It can be seen from the rising trend of the price of domestic machine tools and imported machine tools that the level of demand products is increasing rapidly. Our industry enterprises should take advantage of this opportunity to strengthen user research, research user processes, accelerate the development of urgently needed new products, break through technological bottlenecks, form a number of imported alternative products, and develop together with users.
The changes in market demand also highlight the contradictions in the industrial structure of our industry. The production capacity of traditional products is too large, the price competition is harsh, and some products need a large amount of imports. To resolve the contradiction between product structure and production structure, we must actively eliminate backward production capacity and concentrate on developing products that are suitable for users and replace imported products.
2. Striving for state support and solving financial difficulties In the past year, the market has shrunk, price competition has been severe, corporate profits have fallen, and corporate liquidity has been strained, which has made it difficult for enterprises to operate.
From January to August, the sales revenue of machine tools industry was 221.54 billion yuan, up 6.7% year-on-year; the profit was 11.54 billion yuan, down 12.9% over the same period; the profit margin of product sales revenue was 5.2%, down 1.2 percentage points year-on-year. In addition, the decline in the unit price of export machine tools has adversely affected the profits and capital of export enterprises.
At present, all provinces and cities have arranged special funds to support SMEs in technology development and market development. All enterprises should actively apply to relevant departments for financial support.
3. Strengthen basic research and improve product quality and reliability. As China's overall industrial level lags behind Western industrial countries and industry enterprises, their technical strength is not strong enough, and the supporting system of functional components is imperfect, which leads us to develop high-end products that lag behind the rapid pace of market upgrading. . We should strengthen basic research and form strategic alliances with our peers and upstream and downstream enterprises for product development and use to enhance our competitive advantage. It is understood that the machine companies in some provinces have established research institutes spontaneously, specializing in basic technology research and improving the quality and reliability of products, should be encouraged and supported.
VI. Concluding remarks In 2009, the economic operation of the machine tool industry was basically at a low level and a small dynamic. In the second half of the year, the domestic economy showed signs of recovery, but the impact of the financial crisis on the industry and uncertain factors still exist. Industry development still faces great difficulties. At present, the overall domestic demand has not yet fully recovered, but the demand for machine tools in several key industries continues to be strong. We expect that in 2009, with the economic growth rate of 8%, the growth rate of machine tool industry will reach about 10%, and the gold cutting machine industry will be flat or slightly increased. Imports of metalworking machine tools will reach US$6.1 billion for the year, and exports will fall back to US$1.4 billion. In 2010, if the nationally determined national economic growth target of 8% can be achieved, and the relevant machinery industry can grow by 15%, the machine tool industry will have double-digit growth, but the gold cutting industry will not grow substantially. .
First, from January to September, the overall economic growth rate of the industry stabilized and developed. The stimulus measures of the country's response to the financial crisis gradually appeared in the machine tool industry. In the first two quarters of this year, the industrial output value of the machine tool industry has been growing at a rate of about 5% year-on-year, while the growth rate in July, August and September was relatively high, driving the cumulative growth rate from January to September to reach 9.1%, and the development trend stabilized. The completion of this year's total industrial output value and the year-on-year growth rate are shown in Figure 1.
Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that from 1 to September, 5,876 machines and tools industry completed a total industrial output value of 272.62 billion yuan, an increase of 9.1% year-on-year; September total industrial output value increased by 18.2%. The growth rate of the total industrial output value of the five types of enterprises has increased, among which privately-held enterprises and other types of enterprises have achieved a relatively high growth rate of 19.0% and 17.7% respectively; collective holding companies have shaken off negative growth and achieved 1.1% The degree of decline in state-owned enterprises has slowed down from the first half of the year to -6.7%; Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan and foreign-controlled enterprises have developed better than the first half of the year, but the rate of decline is still double-digit, -13.7% and -16.9 respectively. %. Second, the gold cutting machine industry small industry stopped the decline of the machine tool industry, the production value accounted for 1/4 of the total industry's total amount of gold cutting machine tool industry since April this year for five consecutive months, the cumulative industrial output value of negative growth, the decline is basically maintained 2%. In September, the monthly industrial output value growth rate reached 12.0%, an increase of 8.5% from the previous month, and the growth rate was relatively large. The cumulative industrial output value growth from January to September was the same as that of the same period of last year, and stopped falling.
According to the statistics of 125 key contact machine companies in China, the monthly gross industrial output value is negative, except for March and September. After March, the monthly gross industrial output value of the Jinchee machine tool industry fluctuated mainly between 4 and 5 billion yuan. In August, it exceeded 5 billion yuan, a significant increase from the first few months of this year, but it is still unstable, and it has fallen back in September. In view of the low base last year, there was a significant increase in the same period in September.
The completion of monthly industrial output value of 125 key cutting enterprises of gold cutting machine tools from January to September in 2008 is shown in Figure 2.
The growth rate of product sales revenue in the whole industry from January to August increased by 0.9 percentage points from January to May, and increased by 6.7% year-on-year. However, the sales revenue of Jinchee's small-scale machine products decreased by 1.4 percentage points year-on-year compared with January-May. Obviously, the machine tool industry is generally improving, but the gold cutting machine industry is still unstable. Third, the market demand accelerates to the high-end and large-scale changes The financial crisis has different impacts on the demand for machine tools in various fields of China's national economy. Many industries have reduced the amount of equipment purchased. Some industries such as energy, railway, aviation, and automobiles still have machine tools. Larger demand. However, the demand structure of the market is accelerating and changing. The demand for ordinary and low-grade CNC machine tools has shrunk dramatically, and large-scale and high-end CNC machine tools still maintain stable demand.
Machine Tool Association statistics on 197 key contact enterprises: From January to September 2009, the numerical control rate of metal processing machine tool output was 53.6%, an increase of 6.0 percentage points year-on-year. The output of gold cutting machine tools and the output of CNC machine tools decreased by 30.6% and 13.8% respectively over the same period, and the decline was narrowed month by month. The average unit price of gold cutting machine tools and CNC gold cutting machine tools were 202,000 yuan and 457,000 yuan respectively, which were 34% and 21% higher than the same period of last year. The output reduction of ordinary machine tools is larger than that of CNC machine tools. The economical CNC machine tools in CNC machine tools have a significant decline, which leads to an increase in the numerical control rate and an increase in the unit price. In addition, the efforts of enterprises in the industry to increase the production of large and heavy-duty machine tools have also contributed to the increase in the unit price of machine tools. One of the factors.
Figure 3 shows that from the second half of 2008 to September 2009, the average unit price growth rate of machine tools is accelerating, especially in the first half of 2009, an average increase of more than 10 percentage points from a year ago. The data shows that the import of machine parts in the third quarter of this year reached the peak of the last four quarters. Obviously, the number of domestically produced machine tools that need to be equipped with imported parts is increasing. It can be seen that there is a further demand for medium and high-end domestic machine tools in the market at present and in the future. The effect of adjusting the structure of domestic enterprises has initially appeared.
In order to adapt to the needs of the Chinese market, the structure of imported machine tools has been constantly changing to high-end and large-scale. This trend can be seen from the unit price of imported machine tools. From January to September this year, the average unit price of imported machine tools was US$89,000, an increase of 11% over the same period last year.
From January to September, the import of machine tools did not get rid of the downward trend, but the monthly import volume in September was larger than that in the previous two months, indicating an upward trend. China's cumulative import value from January to September was 7.26 billion US dollars, down 22.8% year-on-year, of which metal processing machine tools imported 4.51 billion US dollars, down 21.2%.
After the monthly import value of China's machine tool products reached the highest value of 990 million US dollars in June, after a decline of 7 or 8 months, it climbed again in September, reaching 940 million US dollars, a decrease of 16.4% over the same period and a 31.5% increase from the previous month. Become the second month of this year to import more than 900 million US dollars. Metal processing machine imports increased significantly in September, with monthly imports of 540 million US dollars, an increase of 170 million US dollars from August, an increase of 45.4%.
Fourth, the export depth has declined, and the structure needs to be optimized. Due to the financial crisis, the international machine tool market continues to be sluggish. In the first nine months of 2009, the consumer markets of the world's major machine tool producing countries and regions experienced a sharp decline. The export of machine tools in China has declined in depth and the structure needs to be optimized.
From January to September, the export of machine tool products was US$ 3.39 billion, down 37.9% year-on-year; among them, metal processing machine tools exported US$ 1.03 billion, down 36.3% year-on-year. Comparing the monthly export volume, it seems that it has bottomed out and showed signs of rebound. The monthly export volume of the whole industry showed a slight upward trend. The export volume in September reached the highest monthly value of 460 million US dollars this year, and 7 small industries exported in the same month. Positive growth. The monthly export situation of the machine tool industry and metal processing machine tools is shown in Figure 4 and Figure 5.
At present, the export structure of metal processing machine tools in China needs to be optimized. Recent export data show that the unit price of export machine tools continues to fall, and the average unit price has dropped by 25%. The following types of machine tools, the unit price drop is large, should attract the attention of the industry: combined processing machine tools, CNC horizontal lathes, CNC gear processing machines, bench drills, polishing machines, planers, broaching machines, sawing machines, forming bending machines, punching machines, Mechanical press. These types of products are mainly export products with low added value and traditional advantages. The decline in unit price may be the reason why the country's recent increase in tax rebates has reduced the cost of enterprises, and it may also be the active price reduction of enterprises to seize the international market share. behavior. With the increasing international trade protectionism, it is easy to suffer trade lawsuits from other countries through low-cost access to international markets. Chinese enterprises should adjust the structure of export products in time to the changes in the international market and expand the export of machine tools and tools. In China's export products, there are also many types of machine tool export unit prices continue to rise, such as: other CNC lathes, CNC boring and milling machines, CNC gantry milling machines, CNC grinding machines, horizontal and gantry machining centers, forging or stamping machine tools, cutting machine tools, this It reflects the trend of China's export products to high-end and large-scale development, and it is also one of the directions for us to adjust the structure of export products.
V. The main work that the current industry urgently needs to do. Although the current market demand has risen and fallen, the products have increased or decreased, and the enterprises have regressed, but the most important thing is that there is a big gap between the industry product structure and market requirements, resulting in on-hand orders. The problems of lack of follow-up orders, weak anti-impact ability, falling profits, and the increasingly fragile corporate liquidity chain are very prominent, and the economic situation of the industry is still grim.
1. Accelerate the adjustment of product structure and eliminate backward production capacity. In order to cope with the financial crisis, a series of economic stimulus plans have been introduced to drive many industries to enter the peak period of investment. These investments are often accompanied by product structure adjustment and even industrial restructuring. Therefore, the market is concerned with product performance. Manufacturing processes, services, prices, etc. have all put forward new requirements. It can be seen from the rising trend of the price of domestic machine tools and imported machine tools that the level of demand products is increasing rapidly. Our industry enterprises should take advantage of this opportunity to strengthen user research, research user processes, accelerate the development of urgently needed new products, break through technological bottlenecks, form a number of imported alternative products, and develop together with users.
The changes in market demand also highlight the contradictions in the industrial structure of our industry. The production capacity of traditional products is too large, the price competition is harsh, and some products need a large amount of imports. To resolve the contradiction between product structure and production structure, we must actively eliminate backward production capacity and concentrate on developing products that are suitable for users and replace imported products.
2. Striving for state support and solving financial difficulties In the past year, the market has shrunk, price competition has been severe, corporate profits have fallen, and corporate liquidity has been strained, which has made it difficult for enterprises to operate.
From January to August, the sales revenue of machine tools industry was 221.54 billion yuan, up 6.7% year-on-year; the profit was 11.54 billion yuan, down 12.9% over the same period; the profit margin of product sales revenue was 5.2%, down 1.2 percentage points year-on-year. In addition, the decline in the unit price of export machine tools has adversely affected the profits and capital of export enterprises.
At present, all provinces and cities have arranged special funds to support SMEs in technology development and market development. All enterprises should actively apply to relevant departments for financial support.
3. Strengthen basic research and improve product quality and reliability. As China's overall industrial level lags behind Western industrial countries and industry enterprises, their technical strength is not strong enough, and the supporting system of functional components is imperfect, which leads us to develop high-end products that lag behind the rapid pace of market upgrading. . We should strengthen basic research and form strategic alliances with our peers and upstream and downstream enterprises for product development and use to enhance our competitive advantage. It is understood that the machine companies in some provinces have established research institutes spontaneously, specializing in basic technology research and improving the quality and reliability of products, should be encouraged and supported.
VI. Concluding remarks In 2009, the economic operation of the machine tool industry was basically at a low level and a small dynamic. In the second half of the year, the domestic economy showed signs of recovery, but the impact of the financial crisis on the industry and uncertain factors still exist. Industry development still faces great difficulties. At present, the overall domestic demand has not yet fully recovered, but the demand for machine tools in several key industries continues to be strong. We expect that in 2009, with the economic growth rate of 8%, the growth rate of machine tool industry will reach about 10%, and the gold cutting machine industry will be flat or slightly increased. Imports of metalworking machine tools will reach US$6.1 billion for the year, and exports will fall back to US$1.4 billion. In 2010, if the nationally determined national economic growth target of 8% can be achieved, and the relevant machinery industry can grow by 15%, the machine tool industry will have double-digit growth, but the gold cutting industry will not grow substantially. .
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