Academy of Social Sciences: The price drop or the fall of the cliff fall next year is "not accurate enough"

On December 3, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences issued the "China Housing Development Report (2015-2016)" forecast that in 2016 China's housing prices will generally show a steady and declining trend. At the same time, from the fourth quarter of this year to the third quarter of next year, the national land market is still facing destocking pressure, and destocking is still the main tone of the market.

The "Report" pointed out that a very prominent problem in China's housing market is that the housing market is seriously out of balance, and structural excess and structural shortages coexist. The contradiction between supply and demand of housing in first-tier cities highlights the abnormally high housing prices; the housing market in third- and fourth-tier cities and some second-tier cities is over-segmented, stocks are high, and house prices are falling. In addition, there is a “structural shortage” for quality housing.

To this end, the national real estate market in 2015 was in the midst of a shock. In the credit and taxation stimulus policies, coupled with the positive response of the local government, the property market continued to pick up from the low tide period, the transaction volume climbed, the destocking speed of the inventory commercial housing began to accelerate, and the destocking cycle of the stock room was shortened. In 2015, five cities in North, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Sanya still adhered to the policy of restricting purchases, but the market in the first-tier cities rebounded significantly and house prices rose. Among them, the transaction area of ​​commercial housing in Beijing increased by 40% from January to September, and the transaction area in Shenzhen increased by 116%. On the contrary, the second- and third-tier cities have a population outflow or lack of sufficient population introduction, imbalance between supply and demand, unsalable commodity housing, and a sluggish land market. Local governments have introduced deed tax subsidies, relaxed down payment, and adjusted household conditions.

According to the forecast of the 2016 property market, the “Report” analysis said that the internal and external conditions of the Chinese property market are not optimistic. From the external environment, the economic growth rate has declined, financial market instability has increased, and internal conditions have seen that the rise in housing prices in the first-tier cities as market highlights has been fully released in 2015, and subsequent housing prices have been weak. Together, the two decided that the housing market in 2016 is difficult to perform well. However, due to the support of macro policies, the environment for purchasing houses is extremely relaxed, the financing costs are low, the possibility of house price collapse is extremely low, and the market will not appear a hard landing.

In response to the development trend of the real estate market, the "Report" proposes to reduce the tax on ordinary commodity housing transactions, and promote free migration and improvement of living conditions. Specific measures include expanding the deed tax concessions, all ordinary commodity housing deeds are charged at a preferential rate of 1%; canceling the two-year limit, all ordinary commodity housing transactions are exempt from business tax; canceling self-use for 5 years and the only living room restrictions, all selling ordinary goods The income from housing is exempt from personal income tax; in addition to the tax reduction and exemption for the sale of one purchase and one purchase, appropriate financial subsidies can be given.

â–  Do you want to smash the price of the house in the next year?
The Academy of Social Sciences responded: Some media are biased towards the whole. <br> After the release of the China Housing Development Report (2015-2016) by the Financial and Economic Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences yesterday, some media will use the title "The price will fall in the next year." The report caused heated public opinion. For the content released by the media, Gao Peiyong, dean of the Institute of Financial and Economic Strategy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that it is not accurate.

Gao Peiyong said that the content published by some media is partial. "The theme of our report is not this. We only objectively analyze what factors will affect the housing market in the next year or several years, and ultimately the main group. The conclusion is not this."

Gao Peiyong said: "We must objectively assess the possible changes in the housing market. We are full of confidence in China's economic development in the next five years. During this period, we may encounter some contradictions and problems. What we need to do is to mobilize everyone's wisdom and promote China. A series of ingenuity in the healthy development of the real estate market. This is a positive signal that we want to pass to the society."

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