Where is the road to the future?

At the end of the month, the market re-explored the bottom, and frequent "diving" caused the market to fall into a chaos: businessmen and end-users have few enquiries, and acid enterprises are cautious. At present, the domestic average price of 98% concentrated in the mainstream of 1,691 yuan / ton, a decrease of about 13.17% from the previous month; to trace the source, in the face of the downturn in the general environment, the demand side of the downturn is still the main cause of dragging the **; At present, the fundamentals of ** are slack, and the negative factors still occupy more than half of the country. Then how do the participants in the latter stage hedge their risks? The trend of the ** in July will be as follows. Zhuo Chuang Xiaobian will make the following analysis.

On the macro level, the external economy is weak, and it is difficult to reverse the export resistance of the domestic chemicals market; domestic regulation of the real estate market, as well as energy-saving and emission reduction efforts, under pressure at every level, the domestic demand is expected to turn confusing; due to domestic liquidity still Obviously, many small and medium-sized enterprises were closed due to lack of financial support and continued losses. Under the situation of internal and external troubles, there is no good prospect in the short-term environment of the environment, which indicates that there is no sign of a boom in demand.

What kind of trend will the acid market show in July?

View 1: The beginning of the month (July 5) **Industrial meeting is about to be held (held by Hangzhou Longshan), boosted market confidence from an angle, after the meeting, the acid price is expected to rebound in the short-term within 100-200 yuan/ton, and requirements Acid enterprises have reduced production, but the demand is few, and it is difficult to grow.

Point two: At present, the market is basically unprofitable, and the acid price has been almost equal to the cost line; the pressure on the inventory of acid enterprises remains high, and the industry conference cannot raise the acid market, but can only stabilize the acid price in a certain sense. In the face of cost and demand side, as well as the big environment and other bad pressure, acid prices rebounded hopelessly;

Personal opinion: In July, the market still has downside risks, but the decline is limited. The average price of domestic prices is hovering around 1,550 yuan/ton. First of all, the downturn of macroeconomic fundamentals is an indisputable fact. For terminal and downstream users, it is obvious that if the price of downstream aniline continues to lose money, aniline companies have closed most of them. Markets with no demand are equal to empty shelves, and price changes are also time-efficient. Sex; Secondly, ** industry conference is nothing more than gathering industry personnel, faced with the downturn in the industry how to tide over the difficulties, offer advice and suggestions, the demand can not be warmed up, optimization of resource allocation, production limit is still the main core, the current acid company inventory is at a high level Short-term production restrictions do not play a key role. Industry conferences can temporarily stabilize market prices. Finally, the current acid prices have approached the cost line, and continued downward pressure, but in the face of strong oversupply pressure and storage pressures. , Acid prices may still remain in the Yin Yin, may fall into the cost line within a new round of elimination or will begin, weak financial strength of small businesses are facing closure, supply and demand pressures gradually eased, acid prices return to a rational price.