Under the new normal, the economic indicators are bleak, and the PMI encounters "the bleak autumn wind"

PMI meets "Broken Autumn Wind" Macroeconomics Hopes "September Miracle"

The official PMI index released in August was 51.1%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. In August, the HSBC manufacturing PMI index was slightly revised down to 50.2%, while the final value in July was 51.7%. Both data fell more than industry expectations.

Although the economic recovery is still based, although the manufacturing industry is still expanding, from the sub-index, the 10 sub-items of the official PMI have begun to decline. Premier Li Keqiang also recently stated that "the economic situation is complicated and the downward pressure is still relatively large."

Since the beginning of this year, the central government has replaced “strong stimulus” with “strong reforms”. As the implementation of policies has increased, investment demand has risen steadily, and the economy has remained stable. There are still foundations for the remaining four months. The track of "before low and then high" years ago is worth looking forward to.

Dismantling the reality of the line of glory

PMI ended the upward trend, 10 sub-indices fell back

The difficulty of climbing up the economy is increasing.

Yesterday (September 1), China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (hereinafter referred to as CFLP), the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Research Center released data show that in August 2014 China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 51.1%, Last month, it fell sharply by 0.6 percentage points, of which 10 sub-indices fell. The indicator also ended its previous five-month recovery.

The final value of HSBC's manufacturing PMI in August was 50.2, previously forecast at 50.3, and the final value in July was 51.7. Analysts believe that the effect of steady growth has weakened, and the current Chinese economy is in a weak stage in the peak season, and there is still a certain expansion capacity in the future.

Qu Hongbin, chief economist at HSBC Greater China, said that although external demand has improved, domestic demand has become increasingly sluggish. Overall, the Chinese economy still faces considerable downside risks in the second half of the year, and further policy needs to be relaxed to ensure economic stability.

New orders fall back in stocks

Among the 12 sub-indices of the official PMI, except for the increase in the finished goods inventory index and the expected index of production and operation activities compared with the previous month, all other indexes fell.

The production-demand related index is closely linked to economic growth. Chen Zhongtao, a CFLP analyst, believes that the PMI index fell this month, mainly due to the fall in the new order index, which also caused the decline in the production index. Specifically, the August new orders index ended for five consecutive months, down 1.1 percentage points from last month to 52.5%, slightly higher than 0.1 percentage points in the same period last year, reflecting a slowdown in demand recovery.

“The demand recovery has slowed down, enterprises have difficulty receiving orders, and production and operation activities have been affected. The PMI index of large and medium-sized enterprises has generally declined, especially in the case of small and medium-sized enterprises,” Chen Zhongtao said. In terms of the size of the enterprise, the PMI of the medium-sized enterprises decreased by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; the PMI of the small enterprises decreased by 1 percentage point from the previous month.

Corresponding to the change of the new order index, the finished goods inventory index rose slightly for three consecutive months, the raw material purchase price index fell again, the industry PMI index trended, and the employee index rebounded weakly. The price index of the means of production expanded, and it fell by 0.79% month-on-month, a decrease of 0.31 percentage points from the previous month.

Lian Ping, chief analyst of Bank of Communications, also told the Daily Economic News that due to real estate drag, manufacturing economic activity is expected to decline, the main raw material purchase price index fell, and manufacturing still has deflationary pressure.

In August, the PMI purchase price index was 49.3%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month. Everbright Securities (8.96, 0.00, 0.00%) reported that the company's voluntary willingness to replenish stocks has not continued. If the difference between raw material inventory and finished product inventory is used to measure the company's willingness to replenish stocks, the index showed a slight increase in July compared with the previous month, but this indicator has declined in August.

Real estate bottoming dragged down the economy

CFLP special analyst Zhang Liqun pointed out that the PMI index showed a significant decline in August, indicating that there is a certain downward pressure on the current economy. The decline in production, new orders, purchase volume and purchase price index exceeded 1 percentage point, reflecting a decline in market demand and production and operation activities, indicating that industrial growth may continue to decline slightly in the future.

Wang Tao, chief economist of UBS Securities, said that in the case of a high base last year, the 9% industrial production growth rate in July was still relatively stable, but the growth momentum was slightly lower than June and weaker than market expectations. Among them, power generation and steel production have slowed down a lot.

“On the other hand, despite policy support, weak real estate and manufacturing investment dragged down fixed asset investment,” Wang Tao said. The growth rate from January to July was only 13.7%, down 6.8 percentage points from the same period of last year. The real estate industry has been deeply adjusted, and the growth rate of development investment has dropped significantly.

“Real estate is still not bottoming out, and the drag on the macro economy will continue for some time,” said Yan Yuejin, a researcher at Shanghai Yiju Real Estate Research Institute.

Everbright Securities believes that under the circumstances that external demand is still limited in economic growth and the real estate industry continues to sink, the main driving force for domestic economic growth is the government's steady growth policy.

However, it is difficult for the directional force to benefit all regions and industries. Some people from Hubei Bureau of Statistics told the Daily Economic News that the rapid growth of the province's industry in the first half of the year relied mainly on some major projects that were put into production last year, which kept the second half of the year high. The difficulty of growth is increasing.

"Two high" momentum good structure upgrade fast

Although 10 of the 12 sub-indices fell back from the previous month and economic growth momentum slowed down, industry expectations were not pessimistic. The expected index of production and operation activities rose by 2.6 percentage points to 57.9%, which was 0.2 percentage points higher than the average of the first half of the year, reflecting that the company is still optimistic about the economic trend in the second half of the year.

“The production and new order indices are 53.2% and 52.5% respectively, which are still significantly higher than the stagnation line. The market demand continues to expand, so there is no need to worry too much about the seasonal adjustment in August.” Lian Ping said.

In addition, although the new export orders index fell, indicating that short-term exports may face fluctuations, but due to the continued improvement of the external environment, the export situation this year will be better than last year.

UBS judged that developers may accelerate the pace of construction before the arrival of “Golden September and Silver 10” to speed up the push. In addition to the low base in the same period last year, the decision-making layer may further support the construction of affordable housing. The pace of new construction in August is expected to further Accelerated, real estate sales area may also see a quarter-on-quarter improvement.

The upgrading of industrial structure is undoubtedly good news for China in the transition period. The CFLP report stated that the “two high” industries, namely high-end equipment manufacturing and high-tech industries, maintained a good momentum of development. Since the beginning of this year, the PMI index of general equipment manufacturing, special equipment manufacturing, and computer communication electronic equipment manufacturing has remained at around 55%, which is significantly higher than the overall level of national manufacturing. The decline in the trend is mainly in the traditional basic raw material industry and overcapacity industries, such as the steel industry.

According to the above-mentioned Hubei Bureau of Statistics, the current reform dividends are gradually emerging, the micro-environment is further improved, the factor flow and allocation efficiency are further improved, and the economy will grow steadily in the second half of the year, and the quality of operation is expected to further increase.

Dismantling the heart of the line of glory

Small business owners said: financing is difficult to expand the scale of "first life"

"Now the financial situation is very bad, my company does not dare to grow up. In the past two years, we will gather a little and first save our lives." Yesterday (September 1), Wang Ming, chairman of a foreign trade company in Wenzhou, Zhejiang Province ( A pseudonym) said to the reporter of "Daily Economic News."

In April of this year, Wang Ming left the original 200-square-meter factory and moved into the new building of 3,000 square meters. He watched only a dozen employees busy in the empty building, and he was not happy at all. “We are going to develop and innovate ourselves on the footwear. The plant and equipment are ready. The hardware is completely ok, but when we communicate with the bank, we are afraid to expand the scale because the bank cannot guarantee the payment. "He is a little helpless.

Wang Ming said that financing difficulties, tax burdens and high costs have become the constraints of the expansion of enterprises. Although the state has introduced a series of preferential policies for small and micro enterprises, he and many surrounding enterprises have not fully enjoyed it. He hopes that it can be enforced and strengthened in the future. For the unimplemented situation, relevant departments can be set up to make complaints.

Government guarantee with private capital

Wang Ming recalled that at the beginning of the year, a local bank governor came to the company and said, "Small business will let it die. We will take back the loan (loan) and don't let it go."

"His idea is that small businesses, we should not save any more." Wang Ming understands this. "It’s not good to say. We are working for banks every year. The interest rate is very high. And the bank also charges various loan service fees, which is aggravated. Business burden."

In the context of Wenzhou's gold reform, many companies want to rely on private capital. “People’s capital is guaranteed by the government and the interest is higher.” Wang Ming said that he seems to “understand” the bank’s practice. “Banks are also enterprises, and they must also maximize profits and the safest way.”

Wang Ming said that he once wanted to expand the scale of the company and develop and operate it on its own, but it requires millions of inputs. When communicating with the bank at the beginning of the year, it said that if the funds can support it, the company will be able to expand, but the bank can't guarantee it.

"If we invest money, maybe there will be output next year. At that time, if the bank does not lend, the funds can't keep up, the company will die at once." He has some helplessness. He can only use conservative methods and is still doing it. Traditional shoemaking equipment and materials are processed to reduce expenses.

In the 3,000 square meter office building, only a dozen employees are working. This situation makes Wang Ming a headache. Although the company has provided benefits such as shuttle bus, "it has been half a year since moving to the new building in April this year, and no worker has been recruited."

According to his analysis, the remoteness of the industrial area where the factory is located is one of the reasons why people cannot be recruited; in addition, the high labor cost is also a big constraint. “It can only be resolved internally, and employees have several functions.”

Small and micro enterprise tax cuts have not been fully implemented

The cost of the enterprise is high and the profit margin is also compressed. Wang Ming said that some footwear factories have very low gross profit. A pair of shoes is 50, which may only earn 1 to 2 yuan, only 3% to 4% of gross profit, which requires volume to drive profits. In addition, his company and some of the surrounding companies did not fully enjoy the benefits of the national tax reduction policy.

This problem exists in many areas. In early August, a small and medium-sized enterprise in the Internet industry in Changchun, Jilin, told reporters that his company had been in business for nine years, but during the same period as other small and micro enterprises around it, it was difficult to enjoy most of the country's tax cuts.

However, since 2008, the state has implemented preferential corporate income tax policies for small and micro enterprises. Since then, the company has continued to expand its preferential treatment and focus on solving the problem of corporate financing. On August 1 last year, the central government clearly exempted enterprises with small monthly sales of not more than 20,000 yuan from VAT and business tax. In this regard, a former Jilin Provincial Government staff member told the "Daily Economic News" reporter that the problem is more local staff, procrastinating, profit-seeking work methods, making many private enterprises in the final working procedures. The card case" caused the policy to fail.

Zhou Dewen, president of the Wenzhou Small and Medium Enterprises Development Promotion Association, also calculated an account. Now the salary of the employees is at least 2,000 yuan per person per month. The small and micro enterprises engaged in the real economy generally have 10 employees, and the monthly salary will be 20,000 to 30,000 yuan; plus raw materials, equipment, plant, water and electricity costs, if the monthly sales of only 20,000 yuan, it is simply unable to maintain normal production and operation. With a monthly sales of 20,000 yuan as the tax threshold for enterprises, it only plays a supporting role for family workshops or small business enterprises.

Therefore, Zhou Dewen suggested that the scope of tax reduction should still be expanded, and the actual effect should be emphasized. It should be changed from an expedient policy for reducing the burden of small and medium-sized enterprises to an institutional normal arrangement.

As a business owner, Wang Ming hopes that after the policy is introduced, it must be enforced. If the local authorities fail to comply with the requirements, it is hoped that a clear department can make direct complaints to promote the implementation of the policy.

Demolition of the stagnation line

Under the new normal, the economic indicators are dim, and the former is low and then high.

In August, the official and HSBC PMI index both fell year on year. If July is the watershed, the economic and policy trends will be significantly different in the first half of this year. In the first half, the economy was weak and unstable, and the policy drums became more and more "strong." After the "opening the door" in the second half, the PMI trend that gradually fell back to the line of glory was even more wait-and-see.

Some insiders pointed out that the trajectory of “before low and then high” that the Chinese economy usually presents may be disrupted. Macro-control has once again faced challenges. Many economists have told the Daily Economic News reporter that when the reforms are going on simultaneously, the micro-stimulus policy still needs to continue, and the monetary policy should be fine-tuned in the direction of neutrality.

The single-month growth rate of solid investment fell sharply

In the face of the economic downturn in the first half of the year, the decision-making level introduced a number of micro-stimulus policies such as targeted RRR cuts, increased shantytown renovation, increased railway investment, and stable exports. As a result, the domestic economic growth rate in the second quarter rebounded to 7.5%.

However, the PMI of large enterprises released in August (September 1) fell by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the contribution of the previous domestic steady growth policy to the sustained recovery of the real economy has weakened.

Fixed asset investment has been the “locomotive” for economic growth for many years. The cumulative growth rate of this indicator in the previous July was only 17%, and it is still falling. The monthly growth rate is also very obvious. Wei Wei, an analyst at Ping An Securities [microblogging], said that this was mainly due to the sharp decline in the growth rate of manufacturing and central project investment.

The macro economy sees the micro-information. A station manager of a waste collection station in Beijing told the reporter of "Daily Economic News" that since this year, the purchase price of scrap products has been falling, and the purchase price of a small mineral water bottle has gradually dropped from 0.1 yuan to 0.07 yuan.

The Yongan Futures Report stated that the acquisition of waste paper is connected to the paper industry and is closely related to the packaging industry, which in turn links clothing, logistics and other industries. The sharp fall in the purchase price of waste paper means that these industries are also facing “cold winter”. Since July, the restrictions on purchases in various regions have gradually opened up a certain support for investment in the real estate industry. However, the short-term rebound in investment is difficult to block the downward trend of the real estate industry.

Shen Jianguang, chief economist at Mizuho Securities, said that the lack of real estate investment has greatly reduced the demand for building materials and cement, and the sales volume of houses has not affected the consumer goods industries such as home and home appliances.

The credit financing blood has not effectively supported the development of the real economy. Some people from Hubei Bureau of Statistics told the reporter of "Daily Economic News" that the threshold of corporate financing and high cost are the main problems. The growth rate of interest expenses of industrial enterprises has approached 10%, showing an upward trend.

This is a problem that the Chinese economy needs to solve when it enters the new normal. Some government think tanks who do not want to be named told reporters that on the surface, it is a problem of the operation of the real economy. Behind the pain points of economic transformation, large and inefficient enterprises have kidnapped the financial system with capital and policy resources. winning.

Policy strength is added to the inevitable

After the release of the two major PMI indicators in August, most analysts have judged that short-term economic stimulus policies are inevitable, and the strength and direction depend on the actual situation of economic operations. Everbright Securities believes that considering the second quarter of infrastructure investment overweight has not been able to hedge the negative impact of continued downside on real estate growth, coupled with infrastructure investment in the third quarter of this year will also face the suppression of high base last year, "We believe that the real estate policy further Relaxation is bound to become an important part of the government's steady growth in the future."

The agency also believes that the reality of high social financing costs requires further monetary policy relaxation.

At the end of last month, the central bank [microblogging] announced that it would guide rural financial institutions to reduce interest rates on agriculture-related loans, and implement preferential interest rates for supporting agricultural loans. The interest rate of rural financial institutions in poor areas can also be lowered on the basis of preferential interest rates. 1 percentage point opened the prelude to targeted interest rate cuts.

"Considering the multi-point targeted RRR cut and targeted interest rate cuts in the future, it has actually achieved the effect of comprehensive interest rate cuts and reductions, which will help reduce the financing costs of the whole society." Shen Jianguang said that the future targeted interest rate cuts are also expected to expand from agriculture to Renovation of shanty towns and small and micro enterprises.

Why is it still money? The important reason is that the finances have already faced considerable challenges.

In the first seven months of this year, fiscal expenditure increased by 15.0% year-on-year, much higher than the annual budget increase of 9.5%. The cumulative fiscal surplus as of the end of July was 789.89 billion yuan, down from 1,137 billion yuan in the same period last year.

According to Cai Wei, deputy dean of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the potential growth rate of China’s economy will fall to 6.2% in the past few years, but the reform of the household registration system will release the demographic dividend and increase the labor force. Supply, and will not sacrifice economic growth.

In the second half of the year, reforms such as fiscal and taxation, household registration, and state-owned enterprises are waiting for the "starting gun." Shen Jianguang said that China's reforms must be carried out simultaneously, and that reforms are not a day's work, so short-term stimulus measures are necessary.

Dismantling the view of the line of glory

Cai Jin, vice president of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, accepts every interview:

Resolving the downward pressure on the economy, relying on investment for a long time

The official and HSBC PMI data released yesterday (September 1) exceeded the industry's expectations.

In terms of sub-indices, 10 of them fell, and most of them fell more than 1 percentage point. The external pressure on the economy has gradually increased.

Despite this, the National Bureau of Statistics said in the report that the 51.1% figure (issued by the government) is still the second highest point this year, indicating that China's manufacturing industry continues to maintain its overall growth.

Yesterday, Cai Jin, vice president of China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, accepted an exclusive interview with the reporter of “Daily Economic News” (hereinafter referred to as NBD) to interpret the cause of the 51.1% figure and the future trend of China's economic development.

Poor investment demand leads to lower PMI

NBD: The outside world thinks this month's decline is more than expected. What do you think?

Cai Jin: The expectation is because of the expected problem, not the problem of the data itself. It can't be regarded as a trending thing when the monthly data itself is dropped. If it is too early to judge the economic operation to enter the downward trend, it seems to be somewhat arbitrary. . After all, the value is still above 50%, and the future trend will take several months to determine.

The data itself is the second highest this year, higher than the same period of last year, and much higher than the average of the first half of the year. It reflects that the fundamentals of steady growth are still relatively good, indicating that China's economy is still in a moderately expanding operating state. Moreover, our expectation index from production and operation activities is 57.9%, which has a relatively large increase, indicating that the company's economic judgment for a period of time is rational and optimistic.

NBD: What is the reason for the decline in PMI data?

Cai Jin: First of all, the investment demand is weak, and it is manifested in two aspects.

The first is infrastructure construction. In July this year, fixed asset investment was 17%, compared with more than 20% in the same period last year. Among them, structural adjustment has led to a weakening of investment growth, but the decline in investment growth rate is probably one of the main reasons for the economic downturn. Secondly, the real estate continues to decline. It is estimated that the real estate data in August will have a further downward trend, which will be reflected in the PMI data. Again, the factor of export, from the new export order index in the PMI, this month is 50%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. Although the export data in August has not yet come out, it can be seen that exports have fallen back.

Therefore, in the continuous game of upward momentum and downward pressure, if the policy is grasped and the expectations of many entrepreneurs are better, I think that short-term fluctuations in PMI are unlikely to lead to long-term trend changes.

Adjusting the structure to solve employment pressure

NBD: I have just mentioned three aspects. How do you see domestic consumption growth?

Cai Jin: The performance of consumer goods is relatively stable. In the long run, economic development relies on consumption. The development of consumption is a strategic measure, which may be manifested in the next three to five years. However, in the short term, it is necessary to look at investment in order to resolve the downward pressure on the economy.

NBD: The PMI sub-index has a relatively low employee index, but the employment situation in the first half of this year is relatively good. What do you think of this problem?

Cai Jin: The low index of employees is due to the slowdown in employment growth, but the overall employment target set by the state is still relatively good.

Now we are in the process of structural adjustment of the manufacturing industry. It is a critical period for resolving overcapacity. During this period, there will be surplus labor, which will create some employment pressure. This is a common problem of structural adjustment.

To solve these problems, in the process of structural adjustment, the manufacturing industry should form new growth points and resolve employment pressures. From a macro perspective, vigorously develop the tertiary industry, etc., and the employment coefficient will become larger after the development of the service industry. The so-called East does not shine in the West. From the current point of view, there is pressure, but hope is also there.

NBD: What do you think about the current policy implementation and future trends?

Cai Jin: Since April this year, the micro-stimulus policy introduced by the decision-making level has gradually landed, such as the construction of shantytowns and railway construction, especially the expansion of tax incentives for small and micro enterprises, targeted reduction, and reduction of loan-to-deposit ratio. The manifestation of utility has caused domestic demand to stabilize.

In addition, in the short-term, macroeconomic policies should be strengthened on the basis of maintaining continuity and stability, and it is expected to maintain the continuity of the positive pattern. In the long run, we must rely on reforms to maintain long-term stable and sustainable development of the economy. Must be based on the market's internal motivation.

Dismantling the small and medium enterprises in the line of glory

Small business PMI fell below the glory and the line of recovery needs to borrow the policy "warm air"

Yesterday (September 1), the China National Institute of Logistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in August, which was 51.1%.

"Daily Economic News" reporter noted that in terms of the size of enterprises, the PMI index of large and medium-sized enterprises fell from the previous month, especially in August, the PMI index of small and medium-sized enterprises fell below the line of honor and death. 49.9%, 49.1%.

Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician of the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that the small business PMI has returned to the contraction interval this month, indicating that the small enterprise recovery base is not stable, production and operation still face more difficulties, and the targeted policy measures to support small and micro enterprises Need to be implemented.

SME profit margin is only 1% to 3%

In the August PMI index, the PMI index of large and medium-sized enterprises generally declined, especially in the case of small and medium-sized enterprises.

Among them, the medium-sized enterprise PMI was 49.9%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. After 4 consecutive months above the critical point, it fell below the critical point this month; the small enterprise PMI was 49.1%, which was slightly higher than 50% last month. After that, it returns to the contraction interval.

Chen Zhongtao, an analyst at China Logistics Information Center, said that the data indicates that demand recovery has slowed down, companies have difficulty receiving orders, and production and operation activities have been affected. The medium-sized enterprise PMI fell by 0.2 percentage points, the new order index fell by 1.5 percentage points, and the small business PMI index and the new order index fell by more than one percentage point.

In addition, HSBC data, which is more focused on SME samples, was also released later. The decline in the HSBC PMI index confirms that SMEs are still facing difficulties. The data shows that the final value of HSBC's manufacturing PMI in August was 50.2%, which was lowered again from the previously announced initial value of 50.3%, and was significantly lower than the final value of 51.7% last month.

Zhou Dewen, president of the Wenzhou SME Development Promotion Association, told the reporter of the Daily Economic News that the current SMEs face high labor costs, high raw material prices, and the company’s profit margin is very small. “Most SMEs’ ​​profit margin is only 1%. ~3%."

Tax incentives are still difficult to implement

In response, the state has taken a series of measures to ease corporate pressure. Following the State Council’s temporary exemption of the value-added tax and business tax of 6 million small and micro enterprises, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the “Guiding Opinions on Strengthening the Financing Services of Small and Micro Enterprises to Support the Development of Small and Micro Enterprises” and proposed 11 measures to alleviate the financing of small and micro enterprises. .

The 2014 government work report also repeatedly mentioned issues such as “tax incentives”, “credit support” and “optimization of industrial structure” for small and micro enterprises.

Moreover, the General Office of the State Council recently issued the “Guiding Opinions on Multiple Measures and Lifting the Efforts to Alleviate the High Cost of Corporate Finance” to promote the positive interaction between finance and the real economy.

The above series of measures have played a certain role. In July, the small business PMI index was 50.1%, up 1.7 percentage points, and returned to the expansion area for the first time in 28 months.

However, the chairman of a foreign trade company in Wenzhou told the reporter of the Daily Economic News that although the state has helped the small and micro enterprises in their policies and improved the status quo of the enterprises to a certain extent, it is more efficient in terms of implementation. Low, many companies still face the current situation of financing difficulties.

In April this year, the “Small and Micro Finance Development Report 2014” released by Boao Forum for Asia showed that 56.9% of the respondents indicated that they did not enjoy the state's tax incentives for small and micro enterprises.

In terms of policy implementation, there is a voice from the local. Liu Yuming, a researcher at the think tank of Jilin Province, told reporters that the power list is listed, the scope of the various departments is clearly defined, the power is restricted, and some administrative approval powers are greatly reduced or even eliminated, so that the state requirements can be truly implemented.

Dismantling the area outside the line of glory

Institutions expect weak global demand for economic slowdown to affect Chinese exports

Recently, the National Institute of Economics and Social Research of the UK think tank released the latest quarterly forecast report, which lowered the global economic growth forecast for this year and next, down from 3.5% and 3.9% expected in May to 3.5% and 3.7% respectively.

However, institutions that are not optimistic about the global economy are far more than this one.

At the end of July, the International Monetary Fund [IMF] (IMF [microblogging]) chairman Lagarde [microblogging] said that global economic activity was sluggish in early 2014, and the economy is expected to accelerate in 2015. Lagarde looks at the global economy and believes that the recovery is very weak and investment losses can be seen everywhere.

Many organizations have mentioned in their reports of lowering economic growth expectations that the weak US economy in the first half of the year was the main cause of economic growth. In addition, the structural adjustment of emerging economies, the normalization of monetary policy in developed countries, the frequent occurrence of global geopolitical events, and the increasing downward pressure on China’s economy have cast a shadow over the prospects for global economic development this year. .

The US economy is rebounding in the second quarter

Chen Fengying, director of the Institute of World Economics at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, disagreed with the practice of foreign institutions to reduce global economic growth expectations. She said in an interview with the Daily Economic News: "The economic performance of the US in the first quarter is an institution. The main reason for the downgrade, but it is obviously wrong to judge based on short-term data only."

Chen Fengying's views are supported by the US economic data in the second quarter: The data released by the US Department of Commerce recently showed that the US quarterly GDP revision rate increased by 4.2% in the second quarter, and the rebound was much higher than expected.

Data released last month showed that the US ISM manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) rose to 57.1 in July, the highest in more than three years, better than the expected value of 56.0, mainly due to the increase in new orders and employment sub-index.

As the world's largest economy, the US economic trend is affecting the lifeblood of the global economy, and every policy adjustment will have a huge impact on the global market. Faced with the strong recovery of the US economy, the outside world was optimistic that the Fed will not only withdraw from the third round of QE in the fourth quarter of this year, but also raise interest rates in advance.

However, at the June policy meeting, the Fed not only did not mention the “rate hike”, but also lowered the 2014 economic growth forecast and the long-term federal funds rate expected median. The practice is equivalent to telling investors in disguise: the Fed has no intention to raise interest rates in advance. . This has undoubtedly given a reassurance to emerging market countries. Chen Fengying pointed out that quantitative easing in the United States has reduced the difficulty of financing in emerging market countries, and its stable economic recovery has also provided opportunities for emerging economies to expand exports.

European economic trend continues to be sluggish

Unlike the strong recovery in the United States, Europe’s economic performance this year has been disappointing.

Data released yesterday (September 1) showed that the final value of the manufacturing PMI output sub-index in the Eurozone fell to 51.0 in August (the final value in July was 52.7), a 14-month low.

Among them, the German manufacturing expansion rate was the lowest in 11 months, further indicating that the German economy is slowing down. France performed even worse. In August, the manufacturing contraction rate was the fastest in 15 months. The final value of PMI was only 46.9, which was 0.9 percentage points lower than that in July.

The Italian PMI also fell for four consecutive months, falling to 49.8 in August, the first time since June last year that it fell below the line of glory.

In the second quarter of this year, Eurozone GDP growth was zero, down from 0.2% in the first quarter. Meanwhile, the inflation rate in August also fell to a five-year low of 0.3%.

Chen Fengying believes that the frequent occurrence of geopolitical incidents in the first half of this year has had a significant impact on the recovery of the European economy. After the Ukrainian incident, EU and Russia sanctions and anti-sanctions have greatly affected market confidence and threatened the EU's energy security.

In addition, the euro zone has not solved the old problems of high unemployment rate and structural adjustment for a long time. Chen Fengying believes that if the new economic growth momentum cannot be found, the euro zone will have difficulty getting out of the economic crisis.

As China's largest trading partner, the weakness of the EU economy will undoubtedly have an impact on China. Although China’s export trade has rebounded this year, there has been a monthly high in exports in July, but Chen Fengying believes that in the long run, it is unlikely that trade will maintain double-digit growth. "The difficulty lies in Europe and Japan, where negative growth has occurred for two consecutive years. As the world's largest exporter of merchandise trade, we cannot expect miracles to emerge."

In this case, it is a consensus of all walks of life to base on domestic reforms. "The consumption is driven by consumption, and then the development of service-oriented trade, this space is still very large." Chen Fengying said.

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