Polysilicon has skyrocketed by 30% in one year.
In just one year, the polysilicon market has changed dramatically.
Time went back to the end of September, a year ago, "Several Opinions on Suppressing Overcapacity in Some Industries and Repeated Construction to Guide the Healthy Development of the Industry" (hereinafter referred to as "No. 38 Document"), sending polysilicon into the "overcapacity" blacklist.
A year later, polysilicon was in short supply, and the price soared by 30%, which made this No. 38 document paralyzed.
According to the data, the price of polysilicon has increased from more than 50 US dollars/kg in May and June this year, and has exceeded 90 US dollars/kg. Analysts expect that there will be no suspense in the price of polysilicon in the second half of the year to break $100/kg.
In fact, the question of misjudgment by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has not stopped for a year. Yesterday, Li Junfeng, deputy director of the Energy Development Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, and Zhao Gang, a researcher at the China Academy of Science and Technology Development of the Ministry of Science and Technology, continued to bombard the miscalculations of the year when they were interviewed by the Daily Economic News.
Then, the market performance this year is to verify the question of "false judgment", or is there a sudden change in supply and demand? Is the government overwhelmed by overcapacity, or is the market in charge?
Crazy polysilicon
In 2008, when the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a document on the overcapacity of polysilicon, the import dependency was around 70%. In 2009, there was a shortage of supply and demand in polysilicon globally. China's demand for polysilicon rose sharply, three or four times that of 2007.
The data show that in recent years, China's polysilicon industry has shown an explosive growth. The indicators of industry scale from 2004 to 2006 were all maintained at a low level. Since 2007, due to the successive production of Xinguang Silicon, Jiangsu Zhongneng and Wuxi Zhongcai, the output of China's polysilicon industry has grown rapidly. In 2007, the total output of polysilicon in the country reached 1,141 tons. In 2008, the total output of polysilicon in China reached 4,573 tons, an increase of 3,432 tons from 2007, an increase of 300.8%.
According to customs data, domestic polysilicon imports in June 2010 were 3,784 tons, an increase of 208.1% year-on-year. From January to June, the total domestic polysilicon imports reached 19,333 tons, while the domestic polysilicon production last year was only 10,000 tons.
The head of Ledian Tianwei Silicon Industry analyzed the “Daily Economic Newsâ€. At present, in the production of solar photovoltaic modules, the global share of China's production has risen rapidly from 20% in 2006 to 35%. China has become the world's largest producer, and the rapid growth of solar module production continues to push up the price of polysilicon products.
Under the dual influence of strong downstream demand and slow release of new upstream production capacity, the polysilicon industry has become the hottest emerging industry in the country. Many companies and many cities are competing for the silicon industry project. This phenomenon is called "crazy polysilicon."
The two experts continued to shell the "false judgment"
In this context, the State Council issued the "No. 38 Document" in late September last year, and polysilicon was awarded as "overcapacity". In 2008, China's polysilicon production capacity was 20,000 tons, the output was about 4,000 tons, and the capacity under construction was about 80,000 tons. Production capacity has been significantly overcapacity.
However, many experts are still worried about this. Li Junfeng said that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology had convinced some polysilicon enterprises to report information due to the asymmetry of information acquired, and eventually formed a false conclusion of overcapacity.
"This is a wrong judgment." Zhao Gang also said to the "Daily Economic News" that the Ministry of Science and Technology has never agreed that there is a problem of overcapacity.
Zhao Gang analyzed that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other ministries and commissions have included polysilicon in overcapacity and have staged problems. Different conclusions have been drawn in different periods.
Zhao Gang said that 2008 was the year in which China's polysilicon enterprises concentrated investment construction and reported. In 2008, the country produced a total of 5,000 tons of polysilicon, accounting for 20% of the country's total demand. The figures reported to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology are too concentrated, resulting in a total number that exceeds the actual demand several times. "After the financial crisis broke out, demand was sluggish, and production was shrinking. Therefore, it was misjudged by overcapacity." Zhao Gang said.
Li Junfeng and Zhao Gang also explained that as the price of polysilicon continued to strengthen for half a year and soared to a relatively high price, it is unlikely that the company will raise the price jointly, indicating that market demand is increasing and the potential of new energy is gradually released. From the perspective of industry, the polysilicon industry is still in its infancy. Most of the original imports were from abroad. Domestic mining and development are still in a cold state. It is therefore unrealistic to judge overcapacity.
Zhao Gang said that from the perspective of the entire new energy market, the solar energy market is in its infancy and development is still not enough. It takes several years for a polysilicon plant to be built, and the capacity requirements can be met in a few years.
How far can the skyrocketing market go?
Is the short-term market for the surge in polysilicon? There are also controversies in the industry.
Li Junfeng said that after the 2008 financial crisis, polysilicon prices all the way down to more than 50 US dollars per kilogram in the first half of this year. Demand rebounded from May to June, and the price rose to $90/kg, which is almost $100/kg.
According to the person in charge of Ledian Tianwei Silicon Industry, the global solar polysilicon production in 2007 was about 27,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of about 15%, and the growth rate was much lower than the 56% increase in solar cell production.
Affected by this, the global supply of polysilicon raw materials is extremely tight, and prices have soared. It is estimated that the global demand for polysilicon will reach 85,000 tons in 2010, and the current annual production capacity is only 58,800 tons, the gap is 26,200 tons, and the demand is growing at a rate of more than 30% per year.
The current shortage of petrochemical energy and strong support from countries to the solar industry will further boost the global demand for polysilicon.
According to the "Daily Economic News", the US Department of Energy estimates that the cumulative installed capacity of solar cells will be at least 18,000 MW in 2015, and 12 tons of polysilicon in 1 MW. A total of 216,000 tons of polysilicon is required.
Polysilicon has once again triggered a controversy over who is "overcapacity". Relevant persons pointed out that for the "overcapacity" of the automotive industry, due to the large impact of the industry, relevant departments must make judgments based on the mastery of accurate data. Even if there is a "overcapacity", the way to solve this problem should be more determined by the market, not the administrative order.
Time went back to the end of September, a year ago, "Several Opinions on Suppressing Overcapacity in Some Industries and Repeated Construction to Guide the Healthy Development of the Industry" (hereinafter referred to as "No. 38 Document"), sending polysilicon into the "overcapacity" blacklist.
A year later, polysilicon was in short supply, and the price soared by 30%, which made this No. 38 document paralyzed.
According to the data, the price of polysilicon has increased from more than 50 US dollars/kg in May and June this year, and has exceeded 90 US dollars/kg. Analysts expect that there will be no suspense in the price of polysilicon in the second half of the year to break $100/kg.
In fact, the question of misjudgment by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has not stopped for a year. Yesterday, Li Junfeng, deputy director of the Energy Development Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, and Zhao Gang, a researcher at the China Academy of Science and Technology Development of the Ministry of Science and Technology, continued to bombard the miscalculations of the year when they were interviewed by the Daily Economic News.
Then, the market performance this year is to verify the question of "false judgment", or is there a sudden change in supply and demand? Is the government overwhelmed by overcapacity, or is the market in charge?
Crazy polysilicon
In 2008, when the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a document on the overcapacity of polysilicon, the import dependency was around 70%. In 2009, there was a shortage of supply and demand in polysilicon globally. China's demand for polysilicon rose sharply, three or four times that of 2007.
The data show that in recent years, China's polysilicon industry has shown an explosive growth. The indicators of industry scale from 2004 to 2006 were all maintained at a low level. Since 2007, due to the successive production of Xinguang Silicon, Jiangsu Zhongneng and Wuxi Zhongcai, the output of China's polysilicon industry has grown rapidly. In 2007, the total output of polysilicon in the country reached 1,141 tons. In 2008, the total output of polysilicon in China reached 4,573 tons, an increase of 3,432 tons from 2007, an increase of 300.8%.
According to customs data, domestic polysilicon imports in June 2010 were 3,784 tons, an increase of 208.1% year-on-year. From January to June, the total domestic polysilicon imports reached 19,333 tons, while the domestic polysilicon production last year was only 10,000 tons.
The head of Ledian Tianwei Silicon Industry analyzed the “Daily Economic Newsâ€. At present, in the production of solar photovoltaic modules, the global share of China's production has risen rapidly from 20% in 2006 to 35%. China has become the world's largest producer, and the rapid growth of solar module production continues to push up the price of polysilicon products.
Under the dual influence of strong downstream demand and slow release of new upstream production capacity, the polysilicon industry has become the hottest emerging industry in the country. Many companies and many cities are competing for the silicon industry project. This phenomenon is called "crazy polysilicon."
The two experts continued to shell the "false judgment"
In this context, the State Council issued the "No. 38 Document" in late September last year, and polysilicon was awarded as "overcapacity". In 2008, China's polysilicon production capacity was 20,000 tons, the output was about 4,000 tons, and the capacity under construction was about 80,000 tons. Production capacity has been significantly overcapacity.
However, many experts are still worried about this. Li Junfeng said that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology had convinced some polysilicon enterprises to report information due to the asymmetry of information acquired, and eventually formed a false conclusion of overcapacity.
"This is a wrong judgment." Zhao Gang also said to the "Daily Economic News" that the Ministry of Science and Technology has never agreed that there is a problem of overcapacity.
Zhao Gang analyzed that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other ministries and commissions have included polysilicon in overcapacity and have staged problems. Different conclusions have been drawn in different periods.
Zhao Gang said that 2008 was the year in which China's polysilicon enterprises concentrated investment construction and reported. In 2008, the country produced a total of 5,000 tons of polysilicon, accounting for 20% of the country's total demand. The figures reported to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology are too concentrated, resulting in a total number that exceeds the actual demand several times. "After the financial crisis broke out, demand was sluggish, and production was shrinking. Therefore, it was misjudged by overcapacity." Zhao Gang said.
Li Junfeng and Zhao Gang also explained that as the price of polysilicon continued to strengthen for half a year and soared to a relatively high price, it is unlikely that the company will raise the price jointly, indicating that market demand is increasing and the potential of new energy is gradually released. From the perspective of industry, the polysilicon industry is still in its infancy. Most of the original imports were from abroad. Domestic mining and development are still in a cold state. It is therefore unrealistic to judge overcapacity.
Zhao Gang said that from the perspective of the entire new energy market, the solar energy market is in its infancy and development is still not enough. It takes several years for a polysilicon plant to be built, and the capacity requirements can be met in a few years.
How far can the skyrocketing market go?
Is the short-term market for the surge in polysilicon? There are also controversies in the industry.
Li Junfeng said that after the 2008 financial crisis, polysilicon prices all the way down to more than 50 US dollars per kilogram in the first half of this year. Demand rebounded from May to June, and the price rose to $90/kg, which is almost $100/kg.
According to the person in charge of Ledian Tianwei Silicon Industry, the global solar polysilicon production in 2007 was about 27,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of about 15%, and the growth rate was much lower than the 56% increase in solar cell production.
Affected by this, the global supply of polysilicon raw materials is extremely tight, and prices have soared. It is estimated that the global demand for polysilicon will reach 85,000 tons in 2010, and the current annual production capacity is only 58,800 tons, the gap is 26,200 tons, and the demand is growing at a rate of more than 30% per year.
The current shortage of petrochemical energy and strong support from countries to the solar industry will further boost the global demand for polysilicon.
According to the "Daily Economic News", the US Department of Energy estimates that the cumulative installed capacity of solar cells will be at least 18,000 MW in 2015, and 12 tons of polysilicon in 1 MW. A total of 216,000 tons of polysilicon is required.
Polysilicon has once again triggered a controversy over who is "overcapacity". Relevant persons pointed out that for the "overcapacity" of the automotive industry, due to the large impact of the industry, relevant departments must make judgments based on the mastery of accurate data. Even if there is a "overcapacity", the way to solve this problem should be more determined by the market, not the administrative order.
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